This NCAA Tournament couldn't have worked out any better.
A few Cinderellas knocking out heavyweights in their path. A record-number of double-digit seeds making the Sweet Sixteen. Improbably runs from Loyola-Chicago, Oral Roberts, Oregon State and Syracuse. The UCLA run to the Final Four, which included two instant classics against Alabama and Gonzaga. At the end of the day, the tournament gave us exactly what we all wanted and needed: a national championship showdown between the clear-cut two best teams all season long. Gonzaga, coming into the title game 31-0 and looking to secure the first perfect season in nearly 50 years, has proven more vulnerable during the tournament than the regular season. Baylor, at 27-2, has stifling defense, balanced offense with some incredible guard play and a relentlessness that makes them feared. Ahead of Monday night's title game, let's look at ten storylines, schematic points and tactical decisions that will help write the story of the 2021 National Championship.
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I get flooded with texts this time every year: what should we do with our bracket? Who are the right upsets to pick? What inside information can you give us that would help?
While it's flattering, I'll be the first guy to tell you that my bracket is no better than anyone else's. The NCAA Tournament is just as frustrating for those of us who use KenPom religiously, study and understand the film/ players and let that perspective get to our heads. In reality, your guesses are as good as mine. But what I can do is save myself (and you) some time by typing up all the advice I'd give and putting it in one place. We'll do a quick region-by-region breakdown with some information on each team, just to see what the tournament might be like. In the West Region, everyone is chasing unbeaten Gonzaga. There are a couple of tricky matchups in their way, but they're still the heavy favorites to push through to see if they can keep a perfect season blemish-free.
I get flooded with texts this time every year: what should we do with our bracket? Who are the right upsets to pick? What inside information can you give us that would help?
While it's flattering, I'll be the first guy to tell you that my bracket is no better than anyone else's. The NCAA Tournament is just as frustrating for those of us who use KenPom religiously, study and understand the film/ players and let that perspective get to our heads. In reality, your guesses are as good as mine. But what I can do is save myself (and you) some time by typing up all the advice I'd give and putting it in one place. We'll do a quick region-by-region breakdown with some information on each team, just to see what the tournament might be like. Now we dive into the South Region, where Baylor has a wide open field and some tough, early matchups in their path.
I get flooded with texts this time every year: what should we do with our bracket? Who are the right upsets to pick? What inside information can you give us that would help?
While it's flattering, I'll be the first guy to tell you that my bracket is no better than anyone else's. The NCAA Tournament is just as frustrating for those of us who use KenPom religiously, study and understand the film/ players and let that perspective get to our heads. In reality, your guesses are as good as mine. But what I can do is save myself (and you) some time by typing up all the advice I'd give and putting it in one place. We'll do a quick region-by-region breakdown with some information on each team, just to see what the tournament might be like. Up second for us is the Midwest Region, featuring a molten hot one-seed in Illinois, an inexplicably tough path for them to the Elite Eight, and a bunch of defensive-minded juggernauts waiting on the other side of the bracket.
I get flooded with texts this time every year: what should we do with our bracket? Who are the right upsets to pick? What inside information can you give us that would help?
While it's flattering, I'll be the first guy to tell you that my bracket is no better than anyone else's. The NCAA Tournament is just as frustrating for those of us who use KenPom religiously, study and understand the film/ players and let that perspective get to our heads. In reality, your guesses are as good as mine. But what I can do is save myself (and you) some time by typing up all the advice I'd give and putting it in one place. We'll do a quick region-by-region breakdown with some information on each team, just to see what the tournament might be like. We start with the East region, where #1 seed Michigan is potentially without one of their senior leaders and the field is wide open behind them.
The more you learn about and follow the Abilene Christian basketball program, the more improbable their run to the 2021 NCAA Tournament seems. It's not their first trip to the dance, but that doesn't erase the proximity of where they were a decade ago: a poor Division II program struggling with funding. Almost three hours west of Dallas on the borderline of the desert, the Wildcats have built themselves into more than just a feel-good story: they're a legitimate threat to beat 3-seed Texas in the first round.
Their roster is comprised of a good mix of JuCo guys, local talent and a few out-of-state guys to plug in the gaps. They're deep, with nine guys who play between 14 and 29 minutes a game, and regularly go with a ten-man rotation. Every single player shoots the 3-point shot; they take 22.4 a game and give up only 17.8. They get to the free throw line a TON and are 20th in the nation in free throw attempts. As a top-50 offense, they get a lot of love for their versatility, pace and analytic-friendly approach -- they've taken 533 3-pointers in the half-court and only 105 mid-range jumpers. In reality, it's their defense that makes them a dangerous Cinderella team. They're 24th in field goal percentage defense (40.0%), 34th in 3-pt. defense (30.6%), 7th in scoring defense (60.5 PPG) and first in the country in turnovers forced per game (20.3). Our recent piece on schools that should be perennial powers received a good deal of feedback, so we figured it's the perfect time to capitalize and bring more of the same content.
All jobs aren't created equal. There are some schools that have more funding, more prestige and better resources at their disposal to make recruiting (and, by extension, winning) more sustainable. As an attempt at pegging which jobs in the major conferences are best and which are most difficult based on those factors, we developed a seven-prong tier system, ranging from the perennial blue bloods to the spots with annual uphill battles. A good coach can raise their program a tier, perhaps even two if there's longevity involved. These rankings fluctuate slightly as a result of the man in the head chair, but are largely dependent on factors outside of who the boss is right now. The pursuit of Kentucky is on. In what is known as a football conference, the ascent of the SEC the last few years has been rapid. There are plenty of schools now investing in major hoops programs, hoping to jockey for position as the next-best landing spot outside of Lexington. The back-and-forth nature of all these jobs prevents one spot from emerging as a challenge, but with rich athletic departments from football and a local culture of spending for athletic success, there are very few bad spots in the league. Our recent piece on schools that should be perennial powers received a good deal of feedback, so we figured it's the perfect time to capitalize and bring more of the same content.
All jobs aren't created equal. There are some schools that have more funding, more prestige and better resources at their disposal to make recruiting (and, by extension, winning) more sustainable. As an attempt at pegging which jobs in the major conferences are best and which are most difficult based on those factors, we developed a seven-prong tier system, ranging from the perennial blue bloods to the spots with annual uphill battles. A good coach can raise their program a tier, perhaps even two if there's longevity involved. These rankings fluctuate slightly as a result of the man in the head chair, but are largely dependent on factors outside of who the boss is right now. In the Big Twelve, everyone chases Kansas. Their success and history is no accident, the careful combination of tradition and a great administration. Texas is nipping on their heels of late, and the depth of middle-tier programs lately has made this one of the best hoops conferences in the country. How sustainable is their run of recent success? And how might a lack of sustainability shape the perception of each job outside of Lawrence or Austin? Our recent piece on schools that should be perennial powers received a good deal of feedback, so we figured it's the perfect time to capitalize and bring more of the same content.
All jobs aren't created equal. There are some schools that have more funding, more prestige and better resources at their disposal to make recruiting (and, by extension, winning) more sustainable. As an attempt at pegging which jobs in the major conferences are best and which are most difficult based on those factors, we developed a seven-prong tier system, ranging from the perennial blue bloods to the spots with annual uphill battles. A good coach can raise their program a tier, perhaps even two if there's longevity involved. These rankings fluctuate slightly as a result of the man in the head chair, but are largely dependent on factors outside of who the boss is right now. What I love about the Big Ten is just how many schools are good pretty much every year. There was a point in time when Indiana was considered a national blue blood, though that time seems to be gone, thanks not only to their own sputtering record but the consistency and success of several other major programs the last two decades. There's a clear bottom-tier of four or five spots, but there are enough resources for any of the league's ten best to win the conference on any given year. Our recent piece on schools that should be perennial powers received a good deal of feedback, so we figured it's the perfect time to capitalize and bring more of the same content.
All jobs aren't created equal. There are some schools that have more funding, more prestige and better resources at their disposal to make recruiting (and, by extension, winning) more sustainable. As an attempt at pegging which jobs in the major conferences are best and which are most difficult based on those factors, we developed a seven-prong tier system, ranging from the perennial blue bloods to the spots with annual uphill battles. A good coach can raise their program a tier, perhaps even two if there's longevity involved. These rankings fluctuate slightly as a result of the man in the head chair, but are largely dependent on factors outside of who the boss is right now. The Big East is not what it once was. Once upon a time, Syracuse, Connecticut, Georgetown and Villanova were among the nation's most storied programs, cashing in on rivalry and depth within the league to attract the best players. The league's dissolution and change over the last 20 years has changed much of its prestige. But outside a few remaining thorough-breads from the old glory days, there isn't a spot within the league that isn't capable of pushing for a multi-year run atop the Big East. |
Adam SpinellaAssistant Men's Basketball Coach, Dickinson College. Archives
April 2021
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