How to Tell if the Draft Lottery is Rigged: 2021 Edition

Perhaps 2021 isn't the right year to be looking at conspiracy theories. Perhaps we've all been through far too much over the last 18 months to indulge one more phenomenon that isn't based in reality.

Or perhaps this is exactly what we need: a dose of satire, levity and paranoia into the minds of those fans who simply struggle to believe the NBA would leave it to chance that their future stars end up in any of the league's 28 markets. More than anything, it provides the perfect banter and feedback to blame someone instead of the bouncing of the balls when things don't go your way.

Every year I pen this piece: a look at the unique factors that would tell you how each team's victory (or lack thereof) in the draft lottery is indicative of the NBA offices and Adam Silver rigging the results to their benefit. Whether you take it as purely comic relief or as legitimate fuel on the conspiratory fire, it's always a fun break from the news cycle to get you primed for the lottery.

1. Houston Rockets (17-55)

Top Pick odds: 14%
Top-4 Odds: 52.1%

Grounded in reality, the Houston Rockets are on the first steps of a prolonged rebuild. New owner Tillman Fertitta has torn down a championship contender that featured James Harden at the crux, sent away all his veterans and started over from scratch. They have to ride out the John Wall contract and still haven't found their star players of the future, even though Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood have some promise as role players. Most fascinatingly, the Rockets lose this pick if it doesn't fall in the top-four. 

The Rockets winning the top pick shows the league's commitment to preventing them from being at the bottom. They want Houston to be a competitive market in Texas and know that the quickest way to rebuild their value is to give them a star like Cade Cunningham.

There's the possibility the Rockets miss out on the top-four entirely, and I believe the league has a vested interest in making this happen. First off, the NBA is certainly invested in discouraging tanking. Whoever finished dead last in the standings this year could be thrown all the way outside the top-four in a transcendent draft class to really make teams hesitate about racing to the bottom. This would be an appropriate punishment for the Rockets and Fertitta; he's early in his tenure and has already proven to be a cheap owner that avoids the luxury tax at all times. The NBA won't want to reward an owner like that with a potential future star.

More likely is that the Rockets wind up with a pick in the 2 thru 4, but don't be surprised if they fall out of the top-four entirely.

​2. Detroit Pistons (20-52)

Top pick odds: 14%
Top-4 odds: 52.1%

It's really been twelve years since the Detroit Pistons were a top-tier franchise in the Eastern Conference. They've built a new arena that has underwhelmed in terms of attendance and was hurt badly by the pandemic. The league needs to protect their owners to help them turn a profit, so it would be logical for the NBA to throw Detroit a bone, give them a top-four pick to kickstart their rebuild and help put some asses in the seats.

Cade Cunningham would be the top earner and an instant star for the Pistons. The league does have multiple other mouths to feed on this list, and with the Pistons still on the ground level of their rebuild, they could survive with an Evan Mobley or Jalen Green on their roster with a top-three pick. Of course, there's the possibility the Pistons are so low in their rebuild that the NBA would push them down the road altogether and let Killian Hayes pan out before placing another young star next to him.

3. Orlando Magic (21-51)

Top pick odds: 14%
Top-4 odds: 52.1%

For a team literally starting a teardown and rebuild within the last few months, the Orlando Magic already have a fairly clear identity: defense. The young players on their roster have solid talent; they're just missing one star player. The Magic have a unique draft here: they have a 79.7% chance of getting the Chicago Bulls pick from the Nikola Vucevic trade; that pick is currently slated at 8th overall. Adding two top-eight picks in this draft would really jumpstart their rebuild.

The fact they have two picks is the rationale behind them either winning or losing the lottery. If they win and get the top pick AND Chicago's pick stays outside the top-four, the Magic are seen as a prime destination: gift-wrapped Cade Cunningham and another youngster while the league wants to put another contender in the East. If they fall out of the top-four but keep the Bulls pick, it's the perfect "split the difference" scenario for the league -- the Magic are starting their rebuild, they don't need to get a top-four pick this year.

There's also around a 10% chance the Bulls keep their pick AND the Magic fall outside the top-four. If that happens, it's more about the league protecting their investment in Chicago than punishing the Magic. The draft pick would convey down the line, and it's proof that the league only has long-term plans for the Magic.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (22-50)

Top pick odds: 11.5%
Top-4 odds: 45.1%

I can't even count how many picks the Thunder have in this draft, or in upcoming drafts. They could get Houston's if it's outside the top-five. They could have three other non-lottery picks. At some point the Thunder don't need everything all at once.

That's why nobody in Oklahoma City should be up in arms if the league doesn't hand them Cade Cunningham. No franchise on this list needs the top pick less.

What is most likely for the franchise: getting the 4th or 5th pick so they grab a talented young player without leapfrogging other teams.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (22-50)

Top pick odds: 11.5%
Top-4 odds: 45.1%

Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro. There are some really solid young players in Cleveland. As Rick Pitino once said, "LeBron James ain't walkin' through that door." The Cavs won't be getting a prime free agent any time soon.

It does feel like the franchise spent all their cache to surround LeBron James with talent or get him back. Top picks like Kyrie Irving in 2011 after he left, Anthony Bennett in 2013 and Andrew Wiggins in 2014 to land Kevin Love to build around LeBron again... Dan Gilbert cashed in all his chips and now he's done moving up. Keeping Cleveland, a team with solid players in place already, away from the top pick lets someone else in on the fun.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves (23-49)

Top pick odds: 9%
Top-4 odds: 37.2% (27.9% for MIN)

You reap what you sow.

The Minnesota Timberwolves went 7-5 in their last 12 games, playing themselves out of the highest level of odds for a top pick in the lottery. It was a curious team-building decision with trade ramifications; if the pick doesn't wind up in the top-3, the Golden State Warriors snag the pick. That means the Timberwolves only have a 27.9% chance of keeping their selection.

​On some level, it's an easy cop out for the league to reward another team. Hey, Timberwolves... you played yourselves into this predicament, it's not our problem. As the league sees an immediate boost from propelling Golden State back to the championship-level, giving them Minnesota's pick is vital to that pursuit.

There's also the impending sale of the franchise, a unique wrench in this process. We've seen franchises that undergo sales receive top picks in the past as a reward for payment and entry to the league. With KAT, Russell and Edwards already on board, adding a top pick to Minnesota before the sale is final could serve as a price hike that nets the league more money and a higher asking price.

Realistically, the league could split the difference: keep the 3rd pick in Minnesota, give them hometown hero Jalen Suggs and slightly raise the value of the organization.

7. Toronto Raptors (27-45)

Top pick odds: 7.5%
Top-4 odds: 31.9%

The league got a taste of Canadian success when the Raptors won the NBA Championship in 2019. It showed the potential for that northern market, and now Adam Silver needs to give them another star before they tear down their franchise completely and hit restart. Cade Cunningham to Toronto would be so perfect for so many reasons, but would be the right business move for the league long-term.

The presence of Masai Ujiri, a proven team-builder who has already proven he doesn't need top picks to build a winner, could mean the Raps don't move up. The league has to look at business as a whole and consider all 30 teams. If Toronto is in pretty stable shape, the Raptors won't be receiving a top pick this year.

8. Chicago Bulls (31-41)

Top pick odds: 4.5%
Top-4 odds: 20.3%

​The Bulls' case is pretty cut and dry here. Move into the top-four, they keep their pick. Don't move up and it goes to Orlando.

How close are the Bulls to getting a playoff berth and moving up in the Eastern Conference? Would adding a pick this year in the top-four really do it? I'm not sold, but that's the point. There's a sense of mediocrity around the team that would prevent them from topping or bottoming out; the roster is too good to suck but not good enough to win. That's a dangerous spot for one of the league's most recognizable franchises to be in. Propel them up to the top-4 now and they'll have the opportunity to crawl back into the playoff chase.

What's going good for the Bulls is that the Magic don't need this pick and aren't owed anything outstanding from the league. Nobody gets wronged too hard if Chicago doesn't convey this pick to Orlando.

9. Sacramento Kings (31-41)

Top pick odds: 4.5%
Top-4 odds: 20.3%

Two words: Vivek Ranadive.

As long as the micromanager is in charge of a franchise, the league won't reward them with a top pick. They have solid young talent already on the roster that they can build around, are in the loaded Western Conference with slim hopes of moving all the way to championship status any time soon and have squandered top-four picks recently. No more gifts.

If the Kings do move up, the NBA has major plans to leverage a potential relocation to Seattle and want the Kings organization to play a role in that. Whether they relocate or just up the price, it's a business decision, not a winning-driven one.

10. New Orleans Pelicans (31-41)

Top pick odds: 4.5%
Top-4 odds: 20.3%

Speaking of relocation potential, New Orleans has to be under the microscope here. They have two big stars in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. A third helps them net a major score if they relocate, gives New Orleans a final chance to support a winning franchise before their lease ends and takes their major star in Zion all the way to the marketing stratosphere.

To be honest, the league has a vested interest in getting Zion a lot of help... only if he wants to stay in New Orleans. There's slight chatter already that he wants out long-term. If that's the case, giving the Pels a top pick only to see him want out in a year means they've squandered the opportunity and simultaneously made Zion a villain, something they'd want to avoid. If Zion commits to the franchise, look for the Pels to move up.

11. Charlotte Hornets (33-39)

Top pick odds: 1.8%
Top-4 odds: 8.5%

LaMelo Ball. Star power. An owner who won't tank to get him another star. A fun on-court product. Are we witnessing the rebirth of an Eastern Conference contender in Charlotte?

12. San Antonio Spurs (33-39)

Top pick odds: 1.7%
Top-4 odds: 8%

The model franchise getting Cade Cunningham? Sheeeeeesh.

Mobley as the anchor and next Tim Duncan? Sheeeeeesh.

Jalen Suggs working with Chip Engelland as the franchise point guard? Sheeeesh.

​The Spurs don't need this pick. But my goodness would they be great if they got it.

13. Indiana Pacers (34-38)

Top pick odds: 1.0%
Top-4 odds: 4.8%

If Indiana wins the lottery or moves into the top-four, it's proof that the league wants to punish tanking and make it look random. There'd be no more random team to move up than the Pacers.

14. Golden State Warriors (39-33)

Top pick odds: 0.5%
Top-4 odds: 2.4% (plus 9.3% of getting 4th from MIN)

Let's not mince words here: the league has a major reason to get the Warriors another elite pick (either to get a player or as trade assets). Moving Golden State all the way up from 14th is a bit of a stretch and only puts eyeballs on the league for poor reasons. Nobody needs to be under that microscope.

There's a way around it: there's a 9.3% chance the Minnesota Timberwolves' pick winds up at 4th overall. If it's at 4 or below, it goes to Golden State. Getting to #4 would be a huge coup for the team.

Of course, they don't only get the pick if it's at 4. There's a chance they get it as high as 6 otherwise. Getting that pick would be a significant step-down in value, though. The dropoff from 5 to 6 is painful and would really suck for the Warriors in terms of trade value.