The NBA season is here, and we at the Box and One are doing a quick NBA preview on each team in the league. The preview will include the following: -A record projection and postseason finish -Review of the depth chart -One bold prediction -Three things to watch -Best-case and worst-case scenario Without any further fluff or pomp, here's a quick preview on each team division by division, starting here in the Central Division. A changing of the guard seems in order with the LeBron-less Cavaliers coming back to Earth. Will Milwaukee or Indiana grab the top spot, and how do the rest of the teams stack up? Milwaukee Bucks Record Projection: 47-35, 1st in Division and 4th in Eastern Conference Playoff Finish: Eastern Conference Semifinals Positional Depth Chart G - Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Matthew Dellavedova, Donte DiVincenzo W - Khris Middleton, Tony Snell, Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown F -Ersan Ilyasova, DJ Wilson P - Thon Maker, Brook Lopez, John Henson, Christian Wood U - Giannis Antetokounmpo Everything starts with the versatility of Giannis, who can play 1 thru 5 and guard 1 thru 5. Coach Budenholzer's free-flowing offense looks best with two guards, so don't be surprised to see Bledsoe and Brogdon together a lot. He loves playing two handlers together. Middleton is still somehow underrated. Connaughton could cut into Snell's minutes if he shoots it like he did this preseason. Milwaukee's biggest question mark is how they sort out their minutes at the 5, and if Maker can play at the 4 for stretches. One Bold Prediction: Giannis makes 75 threes on the season Yep, that's right... the Greek Freak is going to figure out the missing piece. He's going to start shooting treys a bit more, and he'll make them at an acceptable 30 percent clip. It won't be overwhelming from a production standpoint, but he'll make enough and take enough to begin shaking the label of a liability from deep. That opens the door for an absolute monster season a year from now. Three things to Watch: 1. The frontcourt - Maker has been frustrating with his ups and downs as a prospect. He's got so much upside and would be perfect in today's league if he could harness all his skill. Lopez is the cagey veteran and might be best-served as an offensive presence anchoring the second unit. What does Henson give that either don't? Rebounding – if the team needs it, they'll turn to him. Budenholzer must figure out this rotation. Don't be shocked if Giannis ends several games at the 5. 2. Brogdon and Bledsoe - It may not look it now, but these guys are in a competition of sorts for Milwaukee's lead guard spot next season. If they over-produce, the Bucks may not be able to afford both. Still, Budenholzer needs both to work well together if they're going to thrive this year. Two keys can unlock their production: Bledsoe's spot-up shooting and how effectively Brogdon guards wings. 3. The defense - Everyone talks about the new offense that Budenholzer has installed as an upgrade over Jason Kidd's wretched scheme. In reality, Kidd did them no service with his hyper-aggressive helping scheme and frequent sideline traps over the last few years. It will be fascinating to watch a group of young players that have all evolved under that system transition to something more traditional, and whether they create enough turnovers and contest at the rim well enough. Best-Case Scenario: Budenholzer makes all the difference. Milwaukee wins over 50 games and steals a top-three seed in the East. They march all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, led by MVP runner-up Giannis Antetokounmpo and All-Star Khris Middleton. Eric Bledsoe averages 18 and 6, Bud wins Coach of the Year, and the Bucks lead the league in both steals and assists. Worst-Case Scenario: The playing style is vastly different and passes the eye test, but it doesn't result in more wins in a tougher Eastern Conference. Milwaukee wins 44 games and limps into the playoffs as the 6 seed. They go down in the first-round when Giannis tries to do too much and Bledsoe clashes with the star all season long. Both Middleton and Bledsoe leave in free agency next season. Indiana Pacers Record Projection: 44-38, 2nd in Division and 6th in Eastern Conference Playoff Finish: Blown to smithereens by Philly in the first-round Positional Depth Chart G - Victor Oladipo, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Aaron Holiday W - Tyreke Evans, Bojan Bogdanovic F - Thaddeus Young, Doug McDermott, TJ Leaf, Ben Moore, Alize Johnson P - Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Kyle O'Quinn, Ike Anigbogu The Pacers refused to spoil their depth, continuity or shot in free agency in 2019 last summer. It results in a group where, besides Oladipo, the concentration of talent is in the frontcourt. Expect a great season out of Oladipo once again. Turner could take a huge step, especially if he starts shooting the ball effectively. Evans is a welcome addition as a ball handler and slasher – questions about his shooting should vanish after three-straight plus years from deep. Thad Young is their one trade chip if they need it, and perhaps there's a role for Aaron Holiday to be found somewhere if the Pacers commit to going small for stretches. Nate McMillan is one of the most underrated coaches in the league. One Bold Prediction: Doug McDermott plays 0 minutes in the postseason One of Indiana's two key offseason signings, Dougie McBuckets is still a below-average defender. By the time we get to the postseason, the Pacers will have signed one shooting wing and feel confident enough in TJ Leaf to trot them out there ahead of McDermott. His defense simply keeps him off the floor, and Indy gets enough shooting elsewhere. Three things to Watch: 1. Rebounding - Two of Turner, Sabonis and Thad Young are almost always on the court. Despite that, the Pacers were in the bottom-third of the league in rebounding last season. They cannot continue to play big and fail to dominate the boards, especially in an Eastern Conference now patrolled by teams at the top who can switch 2 thru 4 and are so unorthodox. Sabonis at the 4 is a defensive liability waiting to happen in a postseason series against the East's best. 2. The 2-Way Guys - The Pacers have two guys on two-way contracts in Edmond Sumner and CJ Wilcox that I really like. Wilcox is a good 3-and-D guy in its classic form, while Sumner is the guy that colors outside the lines for this group. Watch for one of them to stick on the roster this season past the dates given to 2-Way guys. 3. Myles Turner - Indy will have mounting pressure to improve on 48-wins from last year. Turner is a large part in whether they match that total. He's got a ton of upside left and looked fantastic in the preseason. If he plays at a consistently high level, we may have seen the Pacers scratching the surface of their potential last year. Best-Case Scenario: 51 wins and the 4-seed. The Pacers strike gold with the perfect depth pieces for them, both in the free agency adds and the young fliers they're taken. Oladipo makes second-team All-NBA, thanks to his defense and clutch play, and Turner receives some votes for Most Improved. They bow out in the second-round after pushing the 1-seeded Celtics in six games. Worst-Case Scenario: The Pacers don't compete with the same gusto they did last year and have a leveling off of their production. They continue not to dominate on the glass. Indy goes 2-9 against the East's top three teams, Turner doesn't look much better than he did last season and the Pacers don't even make the playoffs after wildly over-achieving last season. Detroit Pistons Record Projection: 38-44, 3rd in Division and 8th in Eastern Conference Playoff Finish: First-round loss to Boston Positional Depth Chart G - Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Ish Smith, Langston Galloway, Khyri Thomas, Jose Calderon W - Stanley Johnson, Reggie Bullock, Glenn Robinson III, Bruce Brown F - Blake Griffin, Henry Ellenson, Jon Leuer P - Andre Drummond, Zaza Pachulia Detroit's weakness is on the wings. Johnson has been underwhelming throughout his career, and everyone else is a role player. Detroit needs offensive production out of Luke Kennard if they're going to be good. The Griffin-Drummond pairing should be talented and athletic enough to win them games. A healthy Reggie Jackson has looked good this preseason; he'll need to keep it up too. Dwane Casey will have them defending well, there's no doubt about that. Remember, these guys won 39 games last season, so it's not like they were terrible. I have high expectations for Henry Ellenson, Bruce Brown and Khyri Thomas. If they get production out of two of them, the Pistons should be alright. One Bold Prediction: Blake Griffin is an All-Star once again Last year with the Pistons Blake averaged 20-6-6 on 35 percent shooting from deep. He's evolved his game better than people think, and while his superstar stock has cooled thanks to the defensive deficiencies now provided at his position, he's going to produce. Blake is the best individual player they've had in uniform over the last twenty years; it's about time he gets his due. Three things to Watch: 1. Drummond's usage in Casey's offense - With a new coach comes a new offensive system. Last year Drummond found his niche with multiple dribble handoffs at the elbows and playing with the ball in his hands more. A new coach may use him as a traditional screen-and-roll big, or opt to get the ball away in the hands of playmakers like Jackson and Griffin. I'm curious to see exactly what Casey does with Drummond on offense. 2. Reggie Jackson - This guy really is the key for Detroit. When he's healthy and scoring, he really does play as a top-15 point guard in the league. When he's inefficient, sluggish on defense and unmotivated, he's downright bad. A playoff chase and enough star power around him should keep him motivated. Detroit has issues if he isn't. 3. Who steps up on the wings? - Luke Kennard, Langston Galloway, Reggie Bullock, Glenn Robinson III, Bruce Brown and Khyri Thomas. Six guys are in a mixed platoon for minutes and a role that could go any which way based on who earns it and keeps earning it throught the season. My money is on Kennard, GR3 and Brown taking the biggest roles, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bullock continues to start for them. Also keep in mind that Detroit has a $7 million trade exception that expires in late January; they could add some depth there if needed (Justin Holiday, Troy Daniels come to mind). Best-Case Scenario: Griffin plays at a high-level, Jackson looks great and they compete under Casey. Key youngsters like Ellenson, Bruce Brown and Kennard all step up to sure-up the rotation. The Pistons win 44 games and become a scary 7-seed to play in the first-round. Worst-Case Scenario: The clunky fit of Drummond and Griffin plagues them early. Reggie Jackson becomes a loose cannon by mid-December, and the depth on the roster becomes a major issue. The Pistons sputter to 35 wins and have a defense in the bottom-five in the league. Cleveland Cavaliers Record Projection: 29-53, 4th in Division and 11th in Eastern Conference Playoff Finish: 9 games back of the Pistons for the 8-seed Positional Depth Chart G - Collin Sexton, George Hill, Jordan Clarkson W - Rodney Hood, Kyle Korver, Cedi Osman, JR Smith, David Nwaba, Sam Dekker F - Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Channing Frye, JaCorey Williams P - Tristan Thompson, Ante Zizic This roster really isn't that bad, they just don't have enough of a number-two guy next to Love. They'll struggle to protect the rim; they need Thompson to play well. The wings are their deepest spot, and they'll milk that all season long. I expect Cleveland to be a great shooting team once again. Clarkson is incredibly overrated; he's a really poor defender. The Cavs will be alright on offense; don't be shocked if they're in the bottom-five in defense all season. One Bold Prediction: After Kevin Love, Rodney Hood is their leading scorer Hood looked pretty bad in Cleveland last year, struggling to find his role next to LeBron and in a high-pressure environment. When his role is clear and the ball is in his hands, there's little doubt he can score. Cleveland needs offensive production, and the path is clear to minutes for Hood. I expect him to finish the season averaging close to 16 or 17 per game, a notch ahead of Sexton. Three things to Watch: 1. Ty Lue - For the first time, Lue has to put in some motion-based concepts and move the ball. Is he up to the task? Many have been left uninspired by both his leadership and tactical acumen over the last couple of seasons. Now that the stress of winning championships is off, we may get to see the true leader on the sideline. 2. Collin Sexton's efficiency - Sexton is going to come in and be the guy that pushes tempo and carries a heavy offensive load early. That doesn't mean he's necessarily a plus player. Will he be able to shoot the three well, how bad are his bad turnovers, and what does he give you defensively? Don't be surprised if it's a poor showing from Sexton this year, and don't let that deter you from buying his long-term stock. 3. Veteran trades - Cleveland GM Koby Altman has set himself up well thanks to the multiple veteran deals with partial guarantees for next season. If Cleveland falters at the start and the playoffs are not in view at the deadline, look for them to shop Kyle Korver, JR Smith and George Hill, three guys that can help a playoff team and get the Cavs to hit the reset button much more effectively. Best-Case Scenario: Love looks like the superstar he once was in Minnesota, Sexton steps up and Hood is a reliable perimeter scorer. Altman makes a deal to bring in a big man on an expiring contract that helps protect the rim, and Cleveland sneaks into the playoffs as the 8 seed, hovering around .500. Worst-Case Scenario: The wheels fall off. Love gets injured once again, and Cleveland plays at a rate equal to the worst team in the league without him. Sexton is a turnover machine and hemorrhages points on the other end. Lue looks overwhelmed and cannot sort out his wing rotation; Cleveland takes back some long-term contracts to get off their veterans in a non-sensical move. The Cavs at least get to keep their first-round pick, though. Chicago Bulls
Record Projection: 25-57, 5th in Division and 12th in Eastern Conference Playoff Finish: None Positional Depth Chart G - Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, Cameron Payne, Antonio Blakeney, Ryan Arcidiacono W - Denzel Valentine, Justin Holiday F - Lauri Markanen, Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis, Chandler Hutchison P - Wendell Carter Jr., Robin Lopez, Cristiano Felicio, Omer Asik What a hodgepodge of one-dimensional talent. With the exception of rookie big man Wendell Carter, nobody is reliable on both sides of the ball. LaVine and Parker might be the most easily-exploitable pick-and-roll combo in the league. Markkanen's ceiling is around league average on defense. Kris Dunn still hasn't pieced it together on offense. The long-term experiments of playing Jabari at the 3 are even more of a disaster on the defensive end. I really feel for Fred Hoiberg, who still has never received a roster akin to his desired style of play. Chicago will score points but is likely to be the worst defensive team in the league. Carter will get individual recognition he deserves. They're also one injury away from being thin on attractive depth. One Bold Prediction: The Bulls set a new record for points per game allowed Yep, I'm going on record and saying this will be the worst defense of all-time. Somehow they'll still scrape out 25 wins because their individual players are that talented on offense. I literally don't see a way they retain Robin Lopez or Justin Holiday past the trade deadline though, and those are arguably their two most consistent defenders. The wheels really come off in March for the team if that's the case. Three things to Watch: 1. Wendell Carter - This guy is their savior in terms of competitiveness, defensive aptitude, stretch-shooting potential and upside. If he can carve out a role for himself early (spoiler: he will) and not succumb to the poor habits being shown around him, the Bulls have a chance long-term. 2. Kris Dunn's offense - We're still waiting for the third-year point guard out of Providence to put things together. He's proven adept at guarding the ball one-on-one, but he's rough around the edges on the other end. With LaVine able to carry creating responsibilities, it may get to the point where Dunn is banished to a backup role this year. 3. Lauri Markkanen - Besides Carter, we want to see if the Markkanen-Carter pairing is going to do it long-term. Poor defenders and inefficient shot-takers like Jabari and LaVine could throw a wrench in their progress to some extent. Still, the hopes are high on Markkanen, a player I absolutey expect to reach an All-Star level within the next few years. Best-Case Scenario: Parker and LaVine figure it out (somewhat) defensively. Chicago has three players averaging 19 or more per game, and Carter gets some Rookie of the Year votes. Chicago pushes 30 wins and Hoiberg lives to see another day. Worst-Case Scenario: The defense is literally the worst ever. Fred Hoiberg gets the can in February, and the rest of the season is a lost cause. Jabari and LaVine cannot provide a net positive, and their chucking on offense takes away from Markkanen's development. The Bulls let their $12.5 million trade exception from Mirotic expire without taking back a veteran and getting a draft pick. They win 16 games.
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Adam SpinellaHead Boys Basketball Coach, Boys' Latin School (MD). Archives
September 2021
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