This article is a facsimile of an earlier version published on The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors. From a managerial perspective, a weak draft class means it's likely the perfect time to swing for the fences. If the likelihood of hitting is lower, why not swing harder to see if you knock something out of the park?
If that's a common perception shared around the league, teams will begin to covet the ball of clay that is Precious Achiuwa. Playing for Penny Hardaway and the Memphis Tigers, Achiuwa was thrust into a different role than he signed up for after fellow 2020 first-round prospect James Wiseman dropped out of school amidst an NCAA eligibility scandal (which, by the way, was no fault of Wiseman's). A lanky 6'9" forward, Achiuwa slid from the full-time 4 to playing the 5 in some stretches. He moved from versatile forward to anchor and was the Tigers' linchpin in their switching defense with his overall versatility. Despite losing perhaps the top talent in all of college basketball, Memphis finished the season with the nation's most efficient half-court defense. Ahead of traditional powers or elite teams, the Tigers were incredibly stingy. Achiuwa was the do-it-all piece within their system that guided Memphis to that status, plus a 20-win season while salvaging what could have been a disastrous campaign without Wiseman. Achiuwa is an unbelievable athlete and a hell of a defensive prospect. He can protect the rim, perhaps guard 1 thru 5 and has an over seven-foot wingspan. But holy cow, this guy's offensive game is raw.
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This article is a facsimile of an earlier version published on The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors.
This article is a facsimile of an earlier version published to The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors. In baseball, the term "five-tool player" gets thrown around to describe those who can hit, hit for power, run the bases, field well and throw well. In essence, they possess all the tools to be effective in every facet of the game.
In basketball, I've been developing a similarly versatile nomenclature for those skill sets that all elite players are great at:
Auburn Tigers freshman Isaac Okoro has three, and maybe four of these tools. He's a very strong finisher at the basket (64.2 percent). He's an elite interior defender for his size and has shown some fantastic on-ball defense as well. There are flashes of him being a competent passer and playmaker, fusing self-awareness with vision. But man, Okoro really struggles to shoot. As a freshman at Auburn, he was 11-45 (24.4 percent) on catch-and-shoot opportunities in the half-court. He was 28.6 percent from 3-point range overall and a mundane 67.2 percent from the charity stripe. Of the aforementioned five tools, the one Okoro lacks could be most important to his success. A large part of the perimeter touch conversation revolves around where Okoro is slotted positionally. While I don't believe in the traditional positional labels, he'll nonetheless be a byproduct of the system he's placed in and the players he surrounds. As we go through his strengths and areas he needs to improve, we'll sift through Okoro's skills to see just where on offense he can be most successful, how that impacts his positional versatility and what that means for his draft stock. This article is a facsimile of an earlier version published at The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors. Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Billy Donovan presented at an online coaches clinic on April 1 about his offensive philosophy.
There he was asked this question by a viewer, "What is the most difficult transition for a player going from college to the NBA?" Donovan's answer was a brilliant way to frame the pre-draft process. He mentioned guys like Udonis Haslem and Nick Collison, brilliant low-post players in college who torched their opponents. Neither was able to continue utilizing that particular strength in the league at the highest level. But they survived and made themselves dependable career players because they were able to recognize their limits and reinvent themselves. Thus, there are essentially three types of guys:
Arizona guard Nico Mannion is a fairly polarizing prospect. Mock drafts have heralded him anywhere from a top-five pick to a late first-rounder. He continues to slide as his athleticism and lack of late-season production come into question, and it's possible he falls out of the first-round on many boards. Part of that polarity revolves around Mannion's ability to finish at the rim. He seemed to avoid layups early in the year, then either struggled to convert late-year when he forced more shots there or his team struggled down the stretch. In theory, he's an electric passer, a solid scorer and a deep-range 3-point shooter. But Mannion shot 32.7 percent from deep, failed to elevate his teammates or make the Arizona Wildcats a true top-ten team (which they were predicted to be). He also really wore down towards the end of the season and shot 23.9 percent from 3-point range in February. As Mannion's physicality and interior scoring presence come into question, I think Donovan's musings are an important way to frame the debate around him: Is he impactful enough at creating offense all-around that he'll play that role in the NBA? Is he versatile and adjustable enough to succeed even if he can't be a premium scorer at the rim? Or will his physical and interior limitations cause him to miss the mark? This article is a facsimile of an earlier version posted to The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors. This draft class is heavy on ball-dominant guards and bigs.
Naturally, lead guards will be compared with previous lead guards as teams go through their pre-draft process, and the bigs will be compared with bigs. Within the post players and rim protectors category, there are a few ways to look at them as prospects. From my vantage point, any big needs to be looked at through the lens of their defense. None of the players in this draft class are foundational back-to-the-basket scorers, nor is the game valuing such a skill anymore. So if we examine the defensive end, we're looking at how a big would fit into two categories of pick-and-roll defense that are commonplace in the NBA: switching and drop coverage. Switching, the preferred scheme of teams like the Golden State Warriors at their apex or Boston Celtics, seeks to negate advantages gained for the ball handler off the pick. To execute the scheme requires athleticism and the ability to defend quick ball handlers one-on-one. Drop coverage is more about defending the hoop and ceding the mid-range while preserving original matchups. Bigs who can't move their feet as well on guards but who are elite rim protectors and play angles well thrive in this coverage. By my count, there are only two prospects in this class with first-round talent that can fit into both categories. One is Onyeka Okongwu, the USC big man with solid athleticism and rim protection instincts. The other is Maryland's Jalen Smith. Smith is such an interesting prospect due to his versatility on both ends. Defensively, he's a long and fluid athlete who moves like a wing but possesses a 7'2" wingspan and blocks shots at the rim. On offense, he hit over 40 percent from 3-point range the final month of the season and is a ferocious dunker at the rim. He's a ball of clay but an incredibly intriguing one. He has legitimate upside to be highly impactful on both ends and, because of that, he possesses the ability to be one of the few 2020 prospects to outperform their draft slot. Hopefully after reading this article, there will be some merit to the notion that Smith is worth of a lottery selection, not just due to the boxes he checks as a modern big, but the overall skill upside his total package encompasses. This article is a facsimile of an earlier post on The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors. At this point, the consensus has been formed: This 2020 NBA Draft class may end up being historically weak. It's hard not to talk about this as a major storyline entering draft season, as the pessimism around truly elite prospects will color the entire process.
There's a certain ceiling that is understood to accompany NBA top-five picks, as they are meant to be foundational pieces of a team's offense and shoulder the late-game scoring load. Franchises want to stay at the bottom for as short a time as possible, so when they do bottom out and wind up with an incredibly valuable draft pick, they want guys who will serve as a franchise pillar if they reach their potential. The key to this is distinguishing between a high draft pick and a valuable pick—the two are not one and the same. During a draft with few high-end guys, a high pick does not equate value but rather an overpay for a risky acquisition or a non-foundational pillar on offense. At some point, those pillars will be off the board. What happens next? Does the team with the misfortune of being on the clock next gamble for that same pillar on a prospect with more question marks? Do they just go for a position of need? Or do they select a high-floor, low-ceiling pick who is pretty certain to not be a miss? Enter Florida State wing Devin Vassell, a 3-and-D wing who is such a strong defender (both on-ball and in helping situations) that he's almost impossible to miss on. At the very minimum, he'll be a player that can be counted on in late-game NBA situations. He's an effective 3-point shooter, has the prototypical body and length, and is a plus athlete. At the end of the day, Vassell is a role player. Cut from the same cloth of guys like Bruce Bowen, he won't likely be more than an auxiliary option on offense. Bowen never averaged more than nine points per game in his career. That's a tough pill for some general managers to swallow in a draft when the expectation is that they'll select a poster boy who puts butts in the seats while they ride his coattails for the rest of their tenure. These are abnormal times, however, and this is an atypical draft class. So is there any chance that a defensive stud like Vassell cracks the top-half of the lottery? This article is a facsimile of an earlier post featured on The Basketball Writers (TBW), which has recently closed its doors. An under-recruited prospect out of high school, Tyrese Haliburton played two very strong years at Iowa State. As a freshman in 2018-19, he took the role of facilitator and spot-up shooter next to the likes of NBA talent such as Marial Shayok and Talen Horton-Tucker. He was sixth on the team in scoring but quickly separated himself as an analytics darling.
125 assists and only 28 turnovers while shooting 43.4 percent from deep and 68.5 percent inside the arc is the output sure to garner attention. Haliburton chose to return to Ames for his sophomore year, where he'd get to show what he could do as a focal point of the offense in hopes of improving his view in the eyes of scouts. The Cyclones struggled mightily this year, however, and Hailburton missed ten games due to injury. Those two are heavily related, but the struggles weren't isolate to his absence. His analytical projection didn't decline too much despite their losing ways. He led the team in scoring while shooting 59.2 percent inside the arc, 41.9 percent behind it and dialing up 142 assists with only 61 turnovers. (His 6.5 assists per game was just outside the nation's top-10.) Projecting a player's abilities at the next level is informed by stats, but not reliant on them. In this way, Haliburton is an intriguing prospect. His output and results are incredibly strong in a relatively weak draft class. But the overall projection of his athleticism, shooting form and ability to create his own shot could alter his NBA role, which would shape his output. This article is a facsimile of an earlier post featured on The Basketball Writers (TBW), which has recently closed its doors. In such an uncertain environment, there is little about the 2020 NBA Draft that is certain. Workouts will be affected, as will combines, testing information and in-person interviews. Scouts no longer have the NCAA Tournament as a one-stop-shop to conveniently evaluate.
How will the draft order even be determined in a season without playoffs? We're staring down the barrel of many firsts, though we are starting to see some prominent college players declare for the draft despite all the unusual uncertainty. Even before COVID-19 breached the sports world, this 2020 NBA Draft class was seen as a weak one. Top-end prospects are severely lacking, and few freshmen made both an impact statistically and for their team's success. In the face of such a shallow pool, teams can look at this two ways: One is to swing for the fences, as there is a considerable downside in most prospects and for other teams. So why not swing on a home run? The other is to heighten the draft value of the dependable guys who have large bodies of work, are easier to project and, while lacking top talent, won't get a general manager fired. Duke point guard Tre Jones is the latter. Reliability on his scouting report comes from two years of seeing him play, a firm understanding of how he positively impacts the game and the fact he flirted with the draft a year ago. Jones's older brother, Tyus, of the Memphis Grizzlies, has battled some of the same physical limitations and made it work. Pedigree matters to many in NBA circles. Playing at Duke and coming from his background only serve as positives. Our format is designed to discuss a prospect's current strengths and improvement areas. We avoid the term "weakness" because that language infers the skills are outside the player's control. Videos focus on three standout areas for each, with examples that can illustrate and reinforce those areas and how they translate to the NBA. This article is a facsimile of an earlier version published on The Basketball Writers (TBW), which recently closed its doors. Folks, please don’t tell my girlfriend, but I’ve fallen in love. It’s that unabashed, head-over-heels kind of love, that once-in-a-lifetime kind of love.
I’m in love with the game of Arizona Wildcats freshman point guard Nico Mannion. The Wildcats have a top-15 offense, according to KenPom. Synergy’s metrics rank them higher, at sixth overall. Their ascendancy is due not just to shot-making ability but how Mannion runs the show and orchestrates the attack. It’s striking how a non-elite athlete is controlling the offense in literally every facet, especially in today’s game. He’s got a mastery of little tricks that allow him to mask that mundane athleticism and become an elite point guard. Such a skill is one that I haven’t seen since Steve Nash. While I’m not one to frequently throw around lofty player comparisons for draft prospects and create a narrative that raises their expectations, Mannion’s physical traits and penchant for running a team while only taking a limited number of shots at the rim is eerily reminiscent of Nash’s calling card. Perhaps I should temper expectations, but I’d rather share these similarities with you. What can I say? I’m in love. |
AuthorAdam Spinella is a Division III basketball coach using what he's learned about scouting and skill development and applying it to the NBA Draft Archives
November 2020
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