50 Best Returning Prospects: 50-31

As Summer League ends and the first returns are out on the 2021 draft cycle, it's time to fully immerse ourselves in the 2022 NBA draft class. We have enough initial lessons and data points from the 2021 guys through Summer League to have glimpses into our projections -- not enough to draw conclusions from, but small tidbits that can illuminate which rookies come in more ready than others.

Turning the page to 2022, the pandemic still hangs over this crop of talent like a storm cloud. Last season's pandemic-shortened season stifled the results from many young players who were robbed of a traditional preseason process. Others took the opportunity to get an extra year of eligibility and open transfer rules to find an advantageous home that could more readily prepare them for professional waters.

The major theme either way: this is a fairly depleted class of returners when it comes to high-end pro talent. There were very few with first-round likelihood who came back to school. But that doesn't mean the ripple effects of the pandemic stop there. The incoming freshman class, for as highly touted as the elite talents are, remain underscouted by NBA teams due to the cancellation of their final AAU seasons en masse and the lack of in-person scouting as a result of COVID. For those who don't quite reach first round status as freshmen, many could be looking to return to school in 2022-23 to increase their stock.

What does that mean? Expect a decidedly older flavor to the second round next year. As we preview the best returning prospects in college basketball, the shortage of first-round alphas gives way to a field chocked full with second-round hopefuls. As we've always seen, preseason perceptions often get shattered and guys rise or fall with regularity.

That said, here's our first dive into the 2022 class in written form, looking at the 50 best returners by our measure, starting with players who come in 50-31.

50. Andre Jackson, Connecticut
49. Zach Edey, Purdue
48. Kenneth Lofton Jr., Louisiana Tech
47. Drew Timme, Gonzaga
46. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchuwa, Baylor

​Andre Jackson - A hyperathletic wing from Connecticut, Jackson has the physical traits that make him pop as an NBA prospect. At 6'6", Jackson might be big enough to play the 3, a role that likely suits him best at the next level. He barely played as a freshman in disappointing fashion, showing how much he still has left between his talent and being pro ready. If the shot falls (he was 2-17 from 3 last year) and he tightens his handle, there's a chance for him to knock on the door of the league.

Zach Edey - The next five guys on this list are bigs who will have an easy time standing out in college but don't strike me either as modern enough or impactful enough to be priority names for the pros. Edey trails the others despite a 7'4" frame and really impactful defensive showings from the FIBA U19 championships. Sharing a frontcourt with fellow true post Trevion Williams hurts his stock a tad, but his per-40 metrics will be strong. If a team is comfortable developing the skill to work around his size in a Zach Collins-esque smaller sample, he could dart up boards come April or May.

Kenneth Lofton Jr. - Pretty much everyone's favorite player from the FIBA U19 games, Lofton was a dominant back-to-the-basket scorer. Tearing through Conference USA as a freshman, Lofton should have a similar type of impact as a sophomore that he did in the FIBA games and be a true offensive anchor. The mobility, perimeter presence and rim protection aptitude are all ill-fitting for the modern game. There's a really good post scorer in here, though it's hard to get too excited about him at this point.

Drew Timme - Timme has many of the same restrictions as Lofton with a couple extra years on him. Timme isn't as large or physically overwhelming on the block, but he's a 1980s throwback with his post moves, interior scoring and deliberate fake-out drives. Playing in a Gonzaga system helped him produce numbers last year. Now, going back to a Twin Towers approach with star freshman Chet Holmgren on the way, Timme may be playing second-fiddle in his own frontcourt. Playing with another big could serve to expose him defensively. I'm not overwhelmingly high on Timme as an NBA prospect.

​Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchuwa - Baylor's energy big man is still raw on skill, but his offensive rebounding, major motor and solid rim protection instincts place him on NBA radars. The Bears won the national title, giving him enough exposure and positive play as a role guy to warrant attention. Now he'll grow his role after Mark Vital left for the NBA and expect to be a larger part of what they do this year. Playing in the Big Twelve will test his PNR defense and rim protection on a high level.

45. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
44. Darius Days, LSU
43. Wendell Moore, Duke
42. Keegan Murray, Iowa
41. Avery Anderson, Oklahoma State

Trayce Jackson-Davis - TJD has seen himself as more of a 4 than a 5 throughout his college career. It's the biggest obstacle to me embracing him as a pro prospect. There's a lot of offensive upside here in terms of his athleticism and fluidity. The reality is he'll have played three years of college and spent the first two entirely on the block mucking up spacing and refusing to shoot the ball outside of 15 feet: it's virtually impossible to be a 4 in the modern NBA with that pedigree. The blessing for TJD that could salvage his tanking draft stock: playing for former NBA head coach Mike Woodson now in Bloomington. If a pro-style system allows him to pop in tangible ways (replacing the outdated, hi-lo wasteland from Archie Miller) then TJD's natural tools could throw him higher.

Darius Days - A 6'7" shooting forward, Days has clear NBA appeal to me. He shot 50% from the field and 40% from 3 as a junior. Another season like that with the polish he's shown and there's a chance he sneaks in as an UDFA priority for teams. What should plague Days is somehow even lower volume as a senior than he got the last two seasons... LSU loaded up on scorers through transfer. His floor-spacing makes him invaluable and a true prospect, though it does put pressure on the numbers to continue to be very high.

Wendell Moore - There's a theory I have not to give up on really talented wings after one year. Two years and it gets dicey. Moore was a former top-25 recruit to Duke, so it's clear there's talent there. Duke's topsy-turvy season last year saw a few names return, including Moore. With stud freshmen coming in, that makes it a really unorthodox team to project... will the young guns play well enough to supplant the older to true role player status? Will that help the team to more wins, proving the nail in the coffin for a guy like Moore who struggled to help Duke win as a freshman? Or will the experience and seasoning under his belt allow him to pop next to talent in a way that helps Moore show better and the Blue Devils win? Moore will be a junior now, and he steadily has gotten better from the 3-point line. That seems to be the make-or-break trait for him.

Keegan Murray - I'm much lower on Murray than most mainstream outlets. Murray has been lauded by other outlets and mainstream folks as possessing strong defensive and athletic upside; he's a solid shot blocker who covers ground and is switchable. He's also 6'8" and a bit of a tweener at the 4 or the 5. I'm sure a change in perimeter personnel will mean tighter defense for the Hawkeyes this year, though Murray's mantle will be tested nightly in a conference with a ton of highly impactful big men. Should Murray make it through the conference gauntlet effectively, he'll have increased his stock in my book. He isn't a guy I was really impressed with from his freshman footage, though.

Avery Anderson - Anderson made massive sacrifices last year to play second-fiddle to top-pick Cade Cunningham and move more to an off-ball role. I expect Anderson to pop this year with a larger offensive role and the seasoning that comes with being a junior in the Big Twelve. Anderson put up fairly efficient numbers (he could raise his 3-point shooting a bit) but there's a lot to like from the 6'3" scoring guard that should put him as an intriguing NBA prospect for many.

40. Ryan Rollins, Toledo
39. Marcus Carr, Texas
38. Lester Quinones, Memphis
37. Jermaine Samuels, Villanova
​36. Max Abmas, Oral Roberts

Ryan Rollins - Perhaps the most unheralded or underappreciated guy on this list, Rollins is a 6'4" scoring bazooka from Toledo. He blew up at the mid-major level and has some flash and polish to his game that should make him a pro prospect. As a freshman, he averaged 13.7 points and was the MAC Freshman of the Year. Accolades like that get him on my preseason radar. He'll have to improve his assist to turnover ratio drastically and won't sneak up on anyone as the focal point of their team. But a solid season from Rollins should get him some pre-draft workouts that leave the rest of his fate in his hands.

Marcus Carr - Speaking of natural scorers, Carr left Minnesota to go to Texas where he can help the star-studded Longhorns compete for a national championship. He was the man at Minnesota and put up gaudy numbers on occasion, made a ton of shots out of the PNR and was one of the better players in the Big Ten. But Carr is a little old to force his way into anything earlier than middle 2nd round discussions. We're on that borderline of draft range as we crack the top-40, and Carr has one key task to improve to get there: increase his 3-point percentage from the low 31.7% it was last season.

Lester Quinones - Everyone seems to like guys who are unorthodox lead guards. Quinones is a tall, 6'5", somewhat defensive-minded point guard who shot 40% from 3 last season. There are some really unique tools here to look at. On a Memphis team that could take a giant leap into the top-25 thanks to transfer Earl Timberlake and freshman stud signee Jalen Duren, Quinones might be the toolsy role player who shows enough to get himself on draft boards as a do-it-all backcourt threat.

Jermaine Samuels - My infatuation with Villanova guys knows no bounds. Jay Wright produces pro-caliber role players at an incredibly high rate. Another 6'7" swing forward who is more a 4 than anything else, Samuels is heading into his fifth season with the Wildcats. His age, combined with the up-and-down shooting during his 'Nova tenure drop him closer to undrafted range than the next to fulfill the school's successful NBA lineage. Still, Samuels is competitive, a good passer, solid finisher and has defensive upside. If the shot can be consistent and show great strides from his younger years, he's the type of UDFA prospect that forces his way onto the tail end of a roster.

Max Abmas - At this point, Abmas is who he is. An undersized scoring guard who drilled shots at Oral Roberts and propelled them to the Sweet Sixteen. Abmas didn't show well in the NBA Combine setting, both from a testing and a playing perspective. He struggles to separate against those athletes and likely caps his ceiling as a gaudy collegiate scorer. The decision to return to Oral Roberts is less about improving his pro stock as maximizing his day in the sun. Abmas may find some more workouts and second-round intrigue because he's a massive scorer, but I have a really hard time envisioning someone with his defensive concerns ever cracking the first round.

That brings us to the top-35, a spot where we have guys with high enough upside to push their way into first round discussions but reservations on my end that make them closer to second-round guys. In fact, pretty much everyone from 35-5 gets close to a second round grade. That's right; 30 guys who are closer to 2nd round than first. Not everyone will get drafted; some will come back, some will fall out. But we also have to weigh the upside that these guys take a leap that propels them forward. The rankings, which are still arbitrary, are essentially in my views of likelihood of a leap happening, translation to the NBA and the faith I have in guys after their first year performance.

35. Terrence Shannon Jr., Texas Tech
34. Kadary Richmond, Seton Hall
33. Jalen Wilson, Kansas
32. Ochai Agbaji, Kansas
​31. Will Richardson, Oregon

Terrence Shannon - Jarrett Culver and Zhaire Smith flamed out as recent Red Raiders to make it to the NBA. It's an indictment on the offensive skill development system head coach Chris Beard oversaw; his practices were maniacal, focused on energy, defensive and competitive nature: there wasn't much nuanced teaching. After watching his teams workout and practice, I have held the position that guys who played for him were ill prepared for pro basketball and would take much longer to pop. With a new head coach in Lubbock, we can see TSJ start to take strides in a positive offensive direction. He's a long combo/ wing that is talented and can be a really good defender. But I'm not someone who really bets on Texas Tech guys anymore after putting the context together. I'm much lower on Shannon than others as a result.

Kadary Richmond - In almost the same light, Jim Boeheim and Syracuse provide me that type of worry. Richmond is a scoring guard who hasn't gotten a ton of practice reps against well-coached man-to-man defense. The Syracuse effect usually dissuades me from guys, but Richmond got out of there after one year and now heads to Seton Hall. The concerns aren't just about the zone with Richmond, though. He only took 21 3-pointers as a freshman, and while he's a really good playmaker for the wing/ forward spot, he's a bit of a tweener at 6'5". There's NBA talent in here, I'm just not sure how to apply it yet. That makes me really sheepish on over-hyping Richmond, even when other outlets are touting him as a first-round sleeper.

Jalen Wilson - There were parts of last season that had me believing Wilson was best-served as the "break glass in case of emergency" stretch-5. That's not quite an NBA reality for him; at 6'8" with really limited shot blocking upside, Wilson is more firmly a perimeter 4 than a stretch 5. He'll need to increase his overall shooting splits (only 33% from deep as a sophomore) but there's a player in here that I really like. When he was on at Kansas, he was really on. Over his last seven games, Wilson went ice cold, shooting less than 30% from the field and 24% from 3. He's a good stretch-4 candidate with solid athleticism.

Ochai Agbaji - From one Kansas guy to another, the physical frame of Agbaji makes him a defensive favorite of many pro scouts. A strong, switchable 6'5" he could likely defend multiple positions and has quietly gotten better on offense every year at Kansas. He was up to 37.7% from 3 on high volume this past season, a really encouraging sign for those who love to use the term "3-and-D". A lack of great free throw touch, the fact he'll be a senior this year and a fairly deep class of wings with first-round talent push Agbaji farther down this list relative to his peers. 

Will Richardson - It's Richardson's time to shine in Eugene. He's been a really good complimentary offensive piece, and Dana Altman is one of the most underheralded NBA talent developers out there. He'll be a senior, making him a little too old to bum rush his way to the first round in my book. But at 6'5" he's got good size for a combo guard, has gotten better as a playmaker every year and spent the last two seasons shooting over 40% from 3. There's a lot to like in his profile, and the added responsibility in Oregon this year could cause his volume to pop in a way that shows he's NBA ready.