As the eyes of many NBA fans shift towards the postseason, some front office executives are thinking about how they can improve the fates of their franchises that are not currently vying for postseason play. The pre-draft process is filled with tons of scouting, evaluation periods, internal discussion and workouts for some of the hopeful rookies that want a spot in the NBA. Taking the drafting needs and picks into consideration, financial considerations can paint the biggest picture to what decisions will be made beyond the draft. Trading some players, utilizing cap space for taking on others, and preparing for free agency all are highly informed by the team's salary situations – after all, the NBA is a business. The New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz won their first-round matchups in convincing fashion, but struggled to get off the ground against the top teams in the Western Conference. If they plan on catching the Houston Rockets or Golden State Warriors, both organizations must manage this summer expertly without taking a step back. New Orleans Pelicans 2017-18 Record: 48-34 2018 Draft Picks: 51st Restricted Free Agents: none Unrestricted Free Agents: C DeMarcus Cousins, PG Rajon Rondo, G Ian Clark Other Players of Note: SF Darius Miller (partial guarantee), C Cheick Diallo (partial guarantee), G/F DeAndre Liggins (non-guaranteed contract), C Emeka Okafor (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $99,835,589 Luxury Tax Room: $24.2 million You won't find someone that's been more critical of Dell Demps over the last few years. His willingness to deal first-round picks away for minimal role players would always come back to hamstring his teams efforts eventually. This summer might be that time. DeMarcus Cousins, the highlight of Demps' one positive deal, is an unrestricted free agent on a dangerous Achilles injury, which can derail the efforts of a big man rather quickly. While the team can go over the cap to retain Cousins and has multiple efforts to do so, they will lack ways to add more weapons to their team this summer, making them essentially the same team we saw in New Orleans last year. Does Demps have any tricks up his sleeve to surprise the rest of us and improve his team? Order of Operations 1. Negotiate for a one-year deal with Cousins Coming off an Achilles injury and in a year where the market is short on teams with cap space and the need for a big man, DeMarcus Cousins is in a bit of a bind. While he'd certainly jump at any long-term offer that is at or near the max contract, he's been pretty public about his desire to play for a contender and not sacrifice winning for money. That makes New Orleans, the team that holds his Bird rights, the ideal destination for him, whether it's a long-term deal or a one-year contract while he proves his Achilles is fully healthy. Demps and the Pelicans would be wise to push heavily for that one-year deal, but not at the cost of losing Cousins. It's still too early to tell if the experiment in New Orleans of playing him and franchise big man Anthony Davis together is a formula for success; it certainly is bucking most trends in the NBA of going smaller. The one-year deal comes with some risk for the Pelicans; DeMarcus will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and with many more suitors on the market and potentially no doubts about the level of play he'll return to, the Pelicans might risk the fit of him and Davis triggering the emotional Cousins to walk out of the door. However, locking Boogie up to a five-year heavy deal would be costly over the long-term. Boogie would make $30 million next year -- and push New Orleans into the luxury tax -- while also costing $40 million in the 2022-23 season way down the line. That's a ton of guaranteed money to lock up in a player with an injury concern. While I'd expect the one-year deal to be the path New Orleans pushes for, they could try to build a long-term deal that's incentive-laden for Cousins based on his health. If that were to happen, the Pelicans might be getting the best of both worlds: security to not worry about losing their prized big man while receiving protection in the event his injury is debilitating. 2. Rondo with the MLE Once Cousins is signed, the Pels will be far above the cap, and perhaps even above the luxury tax. Even if Cousins leaves, New Orleans is less than a million from the actual salary cap. Because Rajon Rondo was signed to a one-year deal last year, his Bird rights don't belong to the Pelicans, meaning they must have cap space or use their Mid-Level Exception to re-sign him. During the postseason and the huge upset of Portland in the first-round, Rondo proved his worth as he was a key contributor for the Pelicans. They should look to re-sign him regardless of Cousins, but if Boogie comes back his partner in crime should be there as well. Would Rondo be willing to take the Taxpayer Mid-Level, anticipated at $5.45 million? That would be the price of keeping Cousins, which likely pushes them close to the luxury tax if not above it. It would also likely mean sacrificing Ian Clark, who also is on a Non-Bird deal with New Orleans. That's the cost of the roster that Demps has built, though. 3. The four non-guaranteed contracts New Orleans has four players on non-guaranteed contracts: big men Cheick Diallo and Emeka Okafor, guard DeAndre Liggins and wing Darius Miller. Miller played a good role last year as the much-needed 3-and-D type of wing New Orleans lacked. He played far above the $2.2 million he'd be due in full next season, so the Pels should keep him past their early-July guarantee date. Diallo, who is still young and could have some value if Cousins is to miss some time, has a hefty partial guarantee as well. Demps will almost certainly keep him around. The other two players are interesting dilemmas. Emeka Okafor, who will be 36 before the start of next season, would be the fourth center on the roster in New Orleans. While he's available to stay on the cheap, does New Orleans have a need at another position to the point where he's expendable? A lot of that will have to do with Cousins. It helps that Okafor's contract isn't guaranteed until January. Liggins is a bit of the same; he's already here and he's cheap, but he provides little in the way of much-needed outside shooting. With a late guarantee date, New Orleans should hold off on cutting him until they're certain a better replacement exists. 4. Finding value at the 51st pick Could the Pelicans find someone to help fill out their roster here immediately? That is debatable, as this isn't regarded as a highly-deep draft class, and the 51st pick is too hard to predict from here. Could New Orleans package that pick with one of Liggins/ Diallo/ Miller to get a legitimate rotation piece? Demps probably will be aggressive with this pick, so don't rule out a trade. Which leads us to... 5. Thinking trades and the need on the wings New Orleans has severe roster imbalance right now. They lack outside shooting and have very few wings on the roster. The midseason addition of Nikola Mirotic helps, but only two of Mirotic-Davis-Cousins can play together at a time, so there's a maximum on the value Mirotic really provides. What will the Pelicans do if they don't end up with the right 3-and-D wing at the veteran's minimum or through the draft? There is some internal optimism that Solomon Hill becomes a starter and a reliable rotation player, but the Pels still need more depth and insurance behind him. Would they consider trading away one of their non-guaranteed contracts to a team in worse cap situation just to get a three-point shooter? There aren't a lot of teams out there that have wings available and are in that situation. Orchestrating a trade would be much more difficult and require the Pelicans likely offering up, and paying someone to take on, either Alexis Ajinca or Solomon Hill. Demps is a proven win-now type of bidder, and with all future draft picks available to trade, he might dip into that pool once again to provide more levelness to the roster. Utah Jazz
2017-18 Record: 48-34 2018 Draft Picks: 21st, 52nd Restricted Free Agents: G Dante Exum, PG Raul Neto, PG David Stockton Unrestricted Free Agents: F/C Derrick Favors Other Players of Note: G/F Thabo Sefolosha (non-guaranteed contract), F Royce O'Neale (non-guaranteed contract), F Jonas Jerebko (non-guaranteed contract), C Ekpe Udoh (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $89,333,610 Cap Space: $11.6 million Utah far outperformed expectations last year in the absence of Gordon Hayward, and much of that is due to their rookie Donovan Mitchell. With the look of a legitimate NBA superstar, Mitchell has the Jazz now in a great spot long-term. He and defensive anchor Rody Gobert will be the pillars for the future in Utah. With a little bit of cap space available to them this summer, the Jazz could be an intriguing team with the ability to get much, much better in the future. That said, based on their own free agents, the Jazz will likely act as an over-the-cap team until decisions on their marquee guys Derrick Favors and Dante Exum are made. That, and the timing of their signings, could hinder their cap space, while the multiple non-guaranteed deals could bolster it. Order of Operations 1. Can they hit again in the draft? Outside of San Antonio, no organization may be better run than the Utah Jazz. Year after year that strike gold in the draft or with undrafted free agents, orchestrate trades that work out in their favor, remain competitive in the loaded Western Conference and keep their costs low. It's truly remarkable how they've been able to thrive as a small market organization. With the Jazz hitting big time on Donovan Mitchell last year and orchestrating a big trade up in the draft for him, do they have that same magic touch this June to flank him with another big-time future stud? There are avenues again for the Jazz to trade up, but they could also get a good value with the 21st pick. Utah has no holes on their roster and, with the hope that Favors returns to the Jazz, no needs for starters next season. They can afford to take anyone they thing provides the most long-term value. 2. Can they retain Favors? Free agent power forward Derrick Favors has supreme value, both for Utah and for other teams around the league. He's the type of player that can be a positive at the 4 or the 5, and he's young enough to still continue to improve in his role. While a year ago there were fears about the duo of Favors and Gobert working together, they disproved that for a while this year... up until the Houston series. The cost of keeping Favors is likely in the $15 million per year range, but who are they really betting against? Teams like Dallas, Phoenix and Chicago could offer more money, but will they offer an optimal scenario for the big man in terms of supporting cast and winning? One scenario that should be considered as well: a sign-and-trade for Favors. Because the Jazz will keep his cap hold and act as an over-the-cap team until his contract situation is resolved, Favors would be sign-and-trade eligible. What about a mutual sign-and-trade with Milwaukee for Jabari Parker, or with Washington where they eat the final year of Marcin Gortat's deal and get a draft pick? It's a bit unlikely, but that is an avenue where the Jazz could get something in return for Favors while committing more fully to a smaller, quicker style of play. 3. Maximizing value from their non-guaranteed contracts Three players have zero guaranteed dollars for next year, and they have a great deal of value on the trade market and for a Jazz team that is looking for a big splash. Those contracts make for a combined $12.8 million in additional space: Thabo Sefolosha ($5.25m), Jonas Jerebko ($4.2m) and Ekpe Udoh ($3.36m). Sefolosha's guarantee date is July 1st, while Jerebko and Udoh are July 9th. The Jazz can get creative with how they deal with these players. First off, they have to think about the value that each provides on the roster next season. Jerebko likely provides the most on-court value, thanks to Udoh's severe backup status and Sefolosha's injuries. Second, what upgrades would be available to the team without those players? That answer depends on what happens with Favors... if he stays, the Jazz will be over the cap and have only their Mid-Level Exception of $8.8 million to replace any and all of those guys. If Favors leaves, this could be the avenue to getting more cap space to sign a new player, but the timeline doesn't necessarily fit -- Favors would have to announce his signing elsewhere before July 9th. The third option, and perhaps the most likely, is the Jazz trading at least one of these non-guaranteed deals to another team that is in desperate need of cap space. Because the Jazz will operate as an over-the-cap team, they'd have to find a player to match salaries. That said, there should be a market available for these contracts, and one that either helps Utah move up in the draft or grab another veteran for their bench. Would Jerebko be enough to get the team a long-term backup 5 in Frank Kaminsky? What about pairing Udoh and Sefolosha together for E'Twaun Moore? What about those two and a protected pick for JaMychal Green? Many teams that are looking to start a rebuild or are in need of certain changes to their roster, and Utah is one of the few teams that can leverage their non-guaranteed deals into something of more value. Regardless, the first domino to fall will be Sefolosha, and based on their financial numbers, it would be surprising to see the Jazz simply cut him and take the extra $5 million of cap space. Regardless they'll likely operate as an over-the-cap team, so they should keep these guys and soak their value via trade. 4. Exum & their other free agents Beyond Favors, Utah has three restricted free agents they have a leg-up on retaining. Of those three, only one figures to be a key factor in their short and long-term plans: Dante Exum. The Australian product is still one of the hardest players to predict on the free agent market. He's shown great flashes of defensive potential and could be a long, versatile ball handler in the right situation. The question is how much money will any team outside of Utah offer him? The Jazz, based on how far below the luxury tax they are, will probably match any offer that comes in for Exum, and they can do so because he's a restricted free agent that they'll tender. Still, the Jazz will want to drive the value down as much as they can without disrespecting Dante, and could try to preempt any other offer sheets that get put in front of him. Raul Neto, the veteran backup point guard, then becomes a fallback option to Exum. Either way, expect the Jazz to push back talking to him or Stockton until Favors and Exum become known quantities. There's too much potential flexibility if they both leave for the Jazz to make a decision too soon. 5. Thinking big Based on their flexibility, the Jazz are in a bit of a waiting game here with their roster. The best course of action to utilizing non-guaranteed contracts and roster spots is to see things through with Favors and Exum. But there are ways for the Jazz to take matters into their own hands, go on the offensive and make an aggressive push for a star player through trade. Hear me out on this: Utah ships Jonas Jerebko, Thabo Sefolosha, Joe Ingles and two first-round picks to San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard. Or they do the same package with Crowder instead of Ingles and only one pick to Charlotte for Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. These are ways for the Jazz to add another big-name player through trade, something the organization likely has to do since they've never been a big-time free agent destination. Either trade would be a big-time aggressive move for the Jazz, hoping to maximize Donovan Mitchell's window while he's on his rookie contract. They'd do so without giving up many rotation players, and would add great firepower at the top of their roster. On the flip side, two teams that crave cap space in San Antonio and Charlotte would then get up to $9.5 mill space, while taking back a versatile rotation player in Ingles. Would that be enough for San Antonio to make a push for one of the other big names on the market? Neither of these scenarios are likely, but if I'm the GM in Utah, I'm picking up the phone and seeing if I can make an aggressive push for a top-tier superstar like Kawhi. Now is the time to open the window for competing as wide as possible.
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As the eyes of many NBA fans shift towards the postseason, some front office executives are thinking about how they can improve the fates of their franchises that are not currently vying for postseason play. The pre-draft process is filled with tons of scouting, evaluation periods, internal discussion and workouts for some of the hopeful rookies that want a spot in the NBA. Taking the drafting needs and picks into consideration, financial considerations can paint the biggest picture to what decisions will be made beyond the draft. Trading some players, utilizing cap space for taking on others, and preparing for free agency all are highly informed by the team's salary situations – after all, the NBA is a business. After winning their first round series, both the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers bowed out of the playoffs in drastically different circumstances. While the Sixers are on the upswing and have both cap space and tons of potential, the Raptors are in the midst of a coaching change and perhaps the need for a change of direction: Toronto Raptors 2017-18 Record: 59-23 2018 Draft Picks: none Restricted Free Agents: PG Fred VanVleet, C Lucas Nogueira, F Nigel Hayes Unrestricted Free Agents: none Other Players of Note: F Alfonzo McKinnie (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $126,379,761 Luxury Tax Room: -$2,379,761 To say the Toronto Raptors season ended in disappointment would be a sever understatement. After winning 59 games and securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Raps were blown out in four games by the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland Cavaliers. The series cost Dwane Casey his job, prompting President of Basketball Operations Masai Ujiri to cut bait with the Coach of the Year frontrunner in favor of someone that could more tactically manage the rotation and end of game plays. Yet the roster won't have a ton of turnover unless Ujiri wants to change things up from a talent perspective. The Raptors have two 20 point per game scorers, plenty of young assets, a stockpile of big men and a great deal of salary on the books. With no draft picks in the 2018 draft and only two free agents, we could see the Raptors bring the band back together for one more go-around, or we could see Ujiri start to shake things up. Order of Operations 1. Decide if they'll tear-down or keep it together In wrestling with the dilemma of when to hit the reset button, the answers for Ujiri lie not just in what this Raptors team is made of but the landscape of the Eastern Conference. Cleveland's status with LeBron James is still uncertain, and another superhuman performance might be necessary for the Cavs to get back to the Finals again next season. The impetus for making the coaching change was to get by Team LeBron again next year... we still don't even know if LeBron will be back in the Eastern Conference. That doesn't mean the window is necessarily still wide open. The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both outperformed expectations this season, both teams doing so without being at full strength with their young cores. They could both rise past the Raptors in the Eastern Conference standings naturally. Other teams like the Indiana Pacers, flush with confidence after taking LeBron to the brink in the first round, and new-look Milwaukee Bucks could also push Toronto. The East figures to be much more difficult next season, meaning a path to the one-seed is less attainable. So what do the Raptors do? Perhaps a look at these teams two years down the road provides more clarity. Boston and Philadelphia will only grow stronger; this could be the best chance to get them before those franchises morph into super teams. Cleveland will have a good deal of cap space in the summer of 2019, Milwaukee will be in the prime for Giannis and other rebuilding teams ready to jump up and compete. The window for making an NBA Finals is closing, but that doesn't mean it's closed. The Raptors could be conservative through it and make some pretty strong changes to their roster, or they could stick with it, see if the coaching change is enough to propel them forward in the postseason and load up for one more shot at LeBron. 2. DeRozan and Lowry... are they the solution or the problem? There's plenty of blame to go around for the lackluster performance against the Cavaliers this May. Dwane Casey has already shouldered his load, while the two best players in Toronto must bear their responsibility. At this point there's a large enough body of work in the postseason to really wonder if these players are able to lead a team to the Finals. Over the last three seasons, DeRozan has shot a combined 19 percent from three in the playoffs, seen a sharp decline from his regular season assist totals and been a target for players like LeBron to attack when he's on defense. Lowry played much better statistically during the 2017-18 playoffs, but failed to have a positive impact during the stretch runs of any tight games. Whoever the Raptors hire as a head coach must find ways to bring out the best in both players simultaneously. The duo will make $58.7 million next year and a crazy $61 million in 2019-20. The issue with Toronto having supreme depth is that they stand to gain little from trading one of these players for a litany of rotation-ready guys. Swapping DeRozan straight up for another star likely won't net any significant return for Toronto to move the needle forward, though: his value on that contract is significantly low after the postseason performances he's turned in. There's still hope that these players will be part of the solution and aren't the reason why Toronto can't advance very far in the postseason. That said, the duo is entering year number seven together, and at some point the organization may have to admit that their star pairing simply cannot get it done. 3. The Fred VanVleet Dilemma The speedy scoring backup point guard out of Wichita State had a career year and was a huge part of Toronto's bench that was tops in the NBA. VanVleet posted some high-quality per 36 minute numbers: 15.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and only 1.8 turnovers on 41 percent shooting from three. VanVleet certainly has his flaws; he only hit 43 percent of his two-pointers and is too small to be a high-end defensive player. Watching the playoffs should only reinforce how little guys like him play the game with a giant bullseye on their backs. Determining the value for a restricted free agent like VanVleet isn't easy in the current NBA market. He's a guy that could procure the Mid-Level Exception to be a high-end scoring backup. VanVleet has already expressed his desire to return to Toronto, so he could be had at below market value as well. Cost is a huge part of the equation though, as the Raptors will look to drive that price as low as they can while other teams might swoop in and get him to an offer sheet. Is there a price point at which the Raptors don't match any offer for VanVleet? It would likely have to be on the high end of a Mid-Level Exception in order to scare the organization away. 4. Use the trade exceptions or let them expire? As part of the trades the Raptors made last summer, they acquired two trade exceptions. One of them, from sending Cory Joseph to the Indiana Pacers, is for $7.63 million, and the other as part of the DeMarre Carroll trade, has an $11.8 million value. The way these exceptions work: they can be traded to another team, and in return the Raptors can absorb one player whose contract for that season does not exceed the maximum value of the exception. Because the trades took place last July, these exceptions expire on July 13th and July 14th, respectively. With Toronto already above the luxury tax line, adding other salary without having to give any up is a risky proposition for the Raptors ownership group. The hallmark of this Toronto team is their depth, so what really would they gain by adding players through these trade exceptions? In order to justify the added tax costs, it would have to be considerable, which means likely parting from a first-round pick or a young depth piece as a result. The cost of developing young talent so effectively is that sometimes it can prove other assets obsolete. That might be the case here with these two trade exceptions. If they do use them, look for Ujiri to target decently young players that are on expiring contracts but also would have their Bird rights attached in a deal. That could include names like Jeremy Lamb, JaMychal Green, Danny Green, Al-Farouq Aminu or Garrett Temple. 5. Avoiding the luxury tax Factoring in the Raptors extension they gave to Norman Powell last fall, Toronto is already projecting to be more than $1 million over the luxury tax threshold next year. That's before filling out their two roster spots and not counting the non-guaranteed contract of Alfonzo McKinnie (which is guaranteed on the 20th of July). As discussed above, Ujiri has two basically valuable credits to acquire a player, and if they aren't used by the middle of July they go to waste. Combine all these factors and Toronto's ownership has to make an expensive decision: go into the luxury tax to load up their weapons further? The tax is almost impossible to dodge next year for the organization, but how deep into tax waters they wade determines the severity of the tax penalty. Even if Ujiri chooses to use one of the trade exceptions, the Raptors still might need to get some of their larger salaries off the books. In order to unload a Serge Ibaka or Jonas Valanciunas type deal, Ujiri would likely have to pair one of his better young players with it. Would giving up Ibaka and Pascal Siakam or Delon Wright for more financial breathing room be a worthwhile endeavor? Every piece of this puzzle for the Raptors is connected, but keep your eye on how much they spend... the more they spend, the more likely it is they shed some money and give up a young player in the process. Philadelphia 76ers
2017-18 Record: 52-30 2018 Draft Picks: 10th (from LAL), 26th, 38th (from BRK), 39th (from NYK), 56th, 60th (from HOU) Restricted Free Agents: none Unrestricted Free Agents: SG J.J. Redick, SG Marco Belinelli, F/C Ersan Ilyasova, C Amir Johnson Other Players of Note: C Richaun Holmes ($1.6m team option), PG T.J. McConnell ($1.6m team option) Committed Salary: $70,148,057 Cap Space: $30,851,943 After winning their final sixteen games of the regular season and breezing through the first round of the playoffs, the Philadelphia 76ers ran into a buzzsaw in the Boston Celtics. The series revealed a few flaws with the way the Sixers play, including their discipline with shot selection, Joel Embiid's perimeter defense and Ben Simmons' perimeter scoring. The good news for the Sixers, beyond just their young roster and the hopefully healthy return of Markelle Fultz: they will start the summer with nearly $31 million in cap space, two first round picks and four second-round selections. The possibilities for adding to their core are endless here. Order of Operations 1. Exercise team options on McConnell and Holmes Philadelphia's roster has the potential to be a little bit crowded next year. Only four free agents to retain, with likely at least three of them they'd like to bring back. Combine that with two first-round picks and last year's second-round selection Jonah Bolden planning on joining the club and it's almost a challenge to get down to 15 players. That said, the need to exercise deals on McConnell and Holmes still exists. They both provide great value on their contracts and McConnell proved he has a role in the NBA during the series against the Celtics. If the Sixers want to create roster space elsewhere, they can attach some of their second-round draft picks with a contract like Jerryd Bayless. 2. Make the plan for their cap space (and don't undervalue Redick) Before heading into the NBA draft, Philadelphia should have an idea about what they're trying to construct with their roster. Having their two best shooters around Embiid and Simmons, who require teammates that provide fantastic spacing to be at their best, means guys like JJ Redick, Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova are all candidates to return. Long-term the Sixers should want some players to replace them at those spots, but with the short-term goal of competing for a championship in mind, those players cannot be overlooked. Still, $30 million to spend on free agency is enough to go after a max contract player like Paul George or LeBron James. The unknown value of a guy like Markelle Fultz, plus their litany of current and future draft picks, could swing a guy like George, Kawhi Leonard or CJ McCollum in a trade. Going big-game hunting is an option for President Bryan Colangelo and would certainly expedite the process for Philadelphia to become a top-tiered team in the entire league. Hopefully Colangelo doesn't underrate just the effect Redick has on the team. Because Redick was signed to a one-year deal last summer, Philadelphia doesn't hold any Bird rights. What does that mean? That $30 million in free agency has to factor in their desires to retain him, and if they spend too much of it elsewhere, Redick might not return. If you'd ask me, the Sixers are better off keeping costs low -- locking up JJ to a three-year deal worth around $13 million annually, and spending the remaining amount of their free agent budget on either Belinelli/ Ilyasova or upgrades. 3. Continue to draft with their versatility in mind It's easy to see the type of star power these Sixers have built through the draft in recent years. Embiid, Simmons and Fultz are all ball-dominant players that are the futures for carrying the Philadelphia offense. What the Sixers really need is more players like Robert Covington or JJ Redick; the excellent role players that make their team better on both ends of the floor. Simmons is their most unique player, a nearly seven-foot point guard that can guard almost any position imaginable. Length and defensive versatility fit the profile for what the Sixers look for, as well as a shot-maker and floor spacer on the offensive end. Guys like Mikal Bridges from Villanova, Lonnie Walker from Miami, Zhaire Smith from Texas Tech or Miles Bridges of Michigan State all make sense here based on their versatility. There's also the slim shot that the Sixers could package some of their picks together to trade up for one of the big names in the draft, but that doesn't seem to make sense in a draft that's top-heavy with post players. 4. What's going on with Fultz? You'll notice that I still mention Markelle Fultz as one of the franchise cornerstones for Philadelphia. The 2017 first overall pick has wads of potential and could become one of the better backcourt scorers in the Eastern Conference rather quickly. At this point, the shoulder injury, strange shooting mechanics and sudden disappearance of his ability to hit a jump shot have been largely documented, as have the circumstances surrounding the organization refusing to accept responsibility for those developments. We saw flashes of great play later in the season when Fultz finally suited up and returned, but he was run off the floor in the playoffs and watched the Celtics series from the sideline. His trade value isn't likely the same as a first overall pick usually is after their first season, and the team's success without him this season might lead to a desire to cash out and get a more win-ready partner for Simmons and Embiid. Of course, we've seen that communication issues are par for the course within this Sixers organization, so it could very well be the case that the organization botches trying to include him in one of those aforementioned trades for a guy like Kawhi or McCollum. 5. Rounding out the bench targets If Ilyasova or Belinelli end up with costs that are too high for the remaining budget in Philadelphia, they should work hard to find immediate replacements to their roles. Mainly, a more mobile stretch-5 and another shooting wing are huge needs. Here's a list of a couple names that could be decent fits that are seeking around $5-8 million a year, if not cheaper: Bigs: Noah Vonleh, Anthony Tolliver, Dewayne Dedmon, Kevon Looney or Channing Frye Wings: Joe Harris, Wayne Ellington (a Philadelphia native), or Danny Green. As the eyes of many NBA fans shift towards the postseason, some front office executives are thinking about how they can improve the fates of their franchises that are not currently vying for postseason play. The pre-draft process is filled with tons of scouting, evaluation periods, internal discussion and workouts for some of the hopeful rookies that want a spot in the NBA. Taking the drafting needs and picks into consideration, financial considerations can paint the biggest picture to what decisions will be made beyond the draft. Trading some players, utilizing cap space for taking on others, and preparing for free agency all are highly informed by the team's salary situations – after all, the NBA is a business. As two Eastern Conference teams that made the playoffs and pushed their first-round series to seven games, both the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are trending upward. Both have drastically different salary situations, but these two division foes could find themselves in great positions moving forward with the right additions and tweaks made this summer. Indiana Pacers 2017-18 Record: 48-34 2018 Draft Picks: 23rd, 50th Restricted Free Agents: none Unrestricted Free Agents: G/F Glenn Robinson III, F/C Trevor Booker Other Players of Note: C Al Jefferson (only $4m of $10m salary guaranteed; guarantee date Jan. 10), G/F Bojan Bogdanovic (only $1.5m of $10.5m salary guaranteed; guarantee date June 29), PG Darren Collison (only $2m of $10m salary guaranteed; guarantee date July 1), F Thaddeus Young ($13.8m player option), G Lance Stephenson ($4.36m team option), G Joe Young ($1.6m team option), C Ike Anigbogu (non-guaranteed contract), F Alex Poythress (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $92,815,802 Cap Room: $5.9 million Of all the teams to bow out in the first round of the playoffs, perhaps none have more upside to continue their building than the Indiana Pacers. 2017-18 was a miraculous run for Indy, getting to push the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round behind the great play of Victor Oladipo and a strong supporting cast of misfits. Now the Pacers are primed with not just a young core of Oladipo, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, but the possibility of having a great deal of cap space. That cap space, and when the Pacers try to open it up, could be the key to the franchise taking a step towards elite status. Order of Operations 1. Wait a year to clear max cap space, but waive or trade Al Jefferson now With the way their current roster stands, the Pacers have two guaranteed roster spots to be open, about $5.94 million in cap space and the 23rd overall pick in the draft. Thaddeus Young has a $13.76 million player option he could exercise, which could raise the number to $19.7 million, but provide the Pacers with a starting position they need to fill. There are also two team options for the Pacers: Lance Stephenson ($4.36 million option) and Joe Young ($1.6 million option) that could be declined and open up more space, but both players seem to be on team-friendly deals they'd likely exercise. If Indiana's front office gets Young off the books, they have five partially guaranteed contracts – and three large deals – that they can use to clear more cap space to target some big names on the market. Al Jefferson ($10 million with only $4 million guaranteed), Darren Collison ($10 million with only $2 million guaranteed) and Bojan Bogdanovic ($10.5 million with a $1.5 million guaranteed) could all be cut and open up an additional $23 million in space. Bogdanovic and Collison are starters that are difficult to replace. While cap space might sound appealing, the thought of having to spend it on players that move the needle forward isn't easy. GM Kevin Pritchard has a dilemma here this summer: should he use the non-guaranteed deals for flexibility now or punt it until 2019 and have more than $60 million in cap space next summer? The best maneuver might be a middle-of-the-road split from Pritchard and company, cutting the players that don't help them next year or beyond. Getting rid of Al Jefferson and trimming $6 million would give the Pacers about $10.5 million to fill out their roster with before going over the cap. In this year's market, where many teams are relying heavily on the Mid-Level Exception to attract new players, being able to outbid the MLE by a few million could be the difference in swinging a good player to Indianapolis. There is another path that the Pacers could use without eating too much into their 2019 cap space: trading their non-guaranteed contracts. Many franchises are butting up against the luxury tax and struggling to keep costs low. For that reason, a player like Jefferson might have some trade value, as a team might want to swap bad contracts, throw in a sweetener to the Pacers, and then cut Jefferson to lower their salary. Could the Wizards throw in a draft pick to swap Gortat for Big Al? Would Denver do the same with Kenneth Faried? There are options beyond simple cutting or keeping all these players. The bottom line: it will be great for Pritchard and the Pacers to operate from a bargaining position of power, as cap space is a major premium right now. 2. Assume Thad Young will opt-in Pacers point guard Cory Joseph has already opted into his contract for next season with the Pacers, and now the organization is only waiting on Thad Young to make up his mind. It seems highly likely that Young will exercise his $13.76 million player option to return to Indiana. On a year where there's a market crunch, Young isn't likely to recoup that amount of money anywhere else on the market for next season. The only reason he would opt out is if Young thought he'd get buried on the depth chart in Indiana to the point where he couldn't make more than the minimum per year if he were a free agent in 2019. His stock likely won't take that much of a plummet barring serious injury, so this is the likely course for Young. 3. Value the 23rd pick Indiana has the 23rd pick coming up and a great deal of flexibility – the non-guaranteed contracts – to potentially trade up or into another selection. The Pacers, being at a great point in their retooling efforts around Oladipo, should look to add one more solid youngster, and he might be around that late in the first-round. Indiana has a need for depth on the wings and one more multi-positional defender to compete, but that shouldn't detract them from taking the best player available. It just might happen that those two birds can be killed with one stone: the 23rd selection. Creighton's Khyri Thomas, Boise State's Chandler Hutchison, Miami's Bruce Brown and Cincinnati's Jacob Evans could all be in play here as multi-positional defenders and immediate impact guys. In this year's draft, 23 is a solid place to be. There's a clear top 14 or 15 players, but after the lottery there's little difference between when a team will select. Pritchard should be excited about adding one more piece to his team through the draft and have high expectations that they can contribute right away. 4. Outbid other teams in free agency The answer to this question is obviously complex and driven by how much cap space they end up with and how many starting spots they need to replace. It also changes based on whether the organization goes over the salary cap and if they decide to use the Mid-Level Exception. Still, there are names that the Pacers can reasonably expect to target with a solid $11 million budget, in the aforementioned scenario where they outbid teams with the Mid-Level Exception. Another shotmaker and creator could be coming on the wings for the Pacers. Guys like Will Barton, Avery Bradley or Tyreke Evans could be great additions since they have size and would shoulder some of the offensive burden from Victor Oladipo. Even a restricted free agent like Marcus Smart, where the Pacers bid more than most Mid-Level Exceptions and enough for the Celtics to give up on matching his salary, could be within reach for Indiana. Looking at the roster though, Indy is pretty well set when it comes to big men, with two foundational young bigs and a depth flier in Ike Anigbogu. They should focus on adding more switchable wings and pieces this summer, either through the draft, free agency or trade. That's the formula that over the long term would help them against teams like Boston, Cleveland and Philadelphia. 5. Begin talks with Myles Turner on an extension Turner is extension eligible this summer, and the big man has made only minimal strides over the last season and a half. After starting out as a great draft steal for the Pacers, Turner lost some footing to Domantas Sabonis down the stretch this year and might not be the franchise-caliber center the team had hoped for. Still, Turner has more value to the Pacers on an extension and long-term contract than simply letting him shop around and see who else believes in him. Expect Indiana to work diligently to get Turner locked in long-term. Not only is the hope to get him below market value by doing so, but that signing him this summer or fall would give the team a clearer picture of exactly how much space they'll have to attract new names in the summer of 2019. Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18 Record: 44-38 2018 Draft Picks: 17th Restricted Free Agents: F Jabari Parker Unrestricted Free Agents: G Jason Terry, F Shabazz Muhammad Other Players of Note: G Malcolm Brogdon (non-guaranteed contract), C Tyler Zeller (non-guaranteed contract), PG Brandon Jennings (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $100,870,408 Luxury Tax Room: $17.6 million If the rumors on the street are true, Mike Budenholzer will be the next head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks, a welcomed lift for a team that has gotten horrid coaching over the last few years. That coaching change should provide enough of a boost to the team that overall roster overhaul shouldn't be necessary. With one of the brightest stars in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo, a great number two in Khris Middleton and two high-end guards in Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon, the Bucks could rise to the top of the Eastern Conference next season. That said, they still have their fair share of decisions to make this summer with drastic impacts on their long-term roster stability. From the key decision on Jabari Parker to how they approach their bench and center positions, GM Jon Horst has his hands full and must hit each button correctly if Milwaukee is to keep up with other Eastern Conference teams trending upwards. Order of Operations 1. What to do with Jabari? Before midnight strikes on July 1st, the Bucks need to have a plan in place with Jabari Parker and his agent for what the initial offer from Milwaukee will be. That offer is so difficult to predict; Parker has performed very well on the offensive end when healthy, averaging over 20 points per game a season ago. However the health is incredibly questionable, with two ACL surgeries over the last three years have made Jabari a bit of a liability on the defensive end even when healthy. It's hard to predict what the external market will be for Jabari, so Milwaukee is fairly blind with whether they're bidding against themselves or another team will come in and raise the stakes on them. Because Parker is a restricted free agent, Milwaukee will have the ability to match any offer he receives. However if he signs an offer sheet first, that could trigger exorbitant spending on Milwaukee's part and propel them above the luxury tax. There's also the matter of Jabari not getting any bites on the market but being insulted by a low offer that comes from the Bucks. What would then occur? Parker would likely accept the qualifying offer of just above $4.3 million from Milwaukee, take next year to rehabilitate his value, and then become an unrestricted free agent in 2019. The Bucks would have all their key pieces flanking Giannis eligible to leave without recourse next summer, and that's a dangerous bridge to cross a year before Giannis could be the top name on the market. The most likely course of action though is that Jabari accepts a long-term offer somewhere – given his injury history. The Bucks should hope to get him back at around $12 million a year for the first season of his contract. Add that to the full Mid-Level Exception and their first-round pick cap hold and the Bucks should be right at the level of the salary cap. 2. Nailing the draft It's hard to say the Bucks have hit on the draft since nabbing Giannis and Jabari in two consecutive seasons. The pick of Thon Maker has revealed mixed results and frustrating inconsistency, 2015 pick Rashad Vaughn never panned out, and 2017 selection DJ Wilson struggled to find the floor as a rookie. There's a major need for the Bucks to, at the very least, get a competent bench player when they select 17th overall on June 21st. There's no reason to draft for position, nor to expect the Bucks to go after only a certain type of player. Simply taking the best prospect available when they're on the clock and getting them in the rotation is what Milwaukee needs right now. 3. Mid-Level Targets Much of who the Bucks should target is contingent on whether they'll get a 4-man in Jabari Parker or need to add another stretch candidate. Either way there is one priority for the Bucks to add in a new player on the roster: shooting. Players like Wayne Ellington, Joe Harris and Marco Belinelli could be the exact type of role players that the Bucks target. If they need a 4-man after not getting Jabari to stay, perhaps a player like Michael Beasley or Wilson Chandler could fill the void. 4. Extend Malcolm Brogdon Brogdon will be extension eligible this summer, and he's one of the few players they should certainly lock up long-term. On July 29th, Brogdon could be eligible for a four-year, $46 million extension – good value for a player like him who is just about to enter his prime. The Bucks should jump at the opportunity to extend him and be prepared to pay for his borderline sixth man service, serving at the very least as an insurance policy for Eric Bledsoe if he bolts after this coming season. 5. Cross your fingers for Teletovic to be deemed unable to play Right now the Bucks have stretched the contract of Mirza Teletovic over the next three years, providing an unsavory $3.5 million cap hit each season. That said, the Bucks will begin a process with the league to prove that Teletovic is unfit to play and receive a medical waiver for him. If that comes to fruition, the league will wipe away that $3.5 million, but not until November at the earliest. The question is, should the Bucks assume that $3.5 million will get wiped away and over-spend this summer, or take the conservative path and let that money potentially open up this Winter. Either course the team takes they should feel confident that their cap amount will raise by a few million. The one downside: if Teletovic is ever cleared to play again that $3.5 million cap hit in future years would return onto the Bucks cap sheet, so they should tread carefully when handing out long-term money. As the eyes of many NBA fans shift towards the postseason, some front office executives are thinking about how they can improve the fates of their franchises that are not currently vying for postseason play. The pre-draft process is filled with tons of scouting, evaluation periods, internal discussion and workouts for some of the hopeful rookies that want a spot in the NBA. Taking the drafting needs and picks into consideration, financial considerations can paint the biggest picture to what decisions will be made beyond the draft. Trading some players, utilizing cap space for taking on others, and preparing for free agency all are highly informed by the team's salary situations – after all, the NBA is a business. Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers are entering expensive tax territory next season, and have intriguing summers where they must balance limiting their costs and improving their benches to compete. Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Record: 49-33 2018 Draft Picks: 24th Restricted Free Agents: C Jusuf Nurkic, PG Shabazz Napier, SG Pat Connaughton, PG Wade Baldwin IV Unrestricted Free Agents: C Ed Davis Other Players of Note: C Georgios Papagiannis (non-guaranteed contract), F Jake Layman (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $113,945,528 Luxury Tax Room: $5.4 million After a surprising first-round sweep at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans, Portland's entire organization was sent reeling. The Blazers have $5.4 million between them and the luxury tax, and $11.4 mill to the tax apron with one starter and some of their key bench pieces coming into free agency. The Blazers were able to duck the luxury tax last season, but doing so next year would mean heavily shedding salary or letting restricted free agent and starting center Jusuf Nurkic walk. President Neil Olshey will prove to be an incredibly shrewd negotiator if he can simultaneously avoid the luxury tax and keep this team competitive in the Western Conference. Order of Operations 1. Decide if Lillard and McCollum are the right pairing Portland will pay roughly $60 million each year until 2021 for the starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The two are both impressive individual scorers, but are a bit of the same player in terms of style: volume scoring shooters that are average at best on the defensive end. Portland's sweep at the hands of the Pelicans opened their eyes to their ability to guard and how elite perimeter defenders can completely shut down the Blazers' offense. There are rumors that McCollum could be on the trading block as part of a move from the organization to become a bit more well-rounded. The first piece of approaching the offseason comes with deciding if these two can go another season together, or if the Blazers must part from one if they are to stay in the top-tier of the Western Conference. Assuming McCollum stays in Portland, here are the rest of the options for their summer: 2. Will they match a big offer for Nurkic? Perhaps the biggest question for Portland is how deep into the luxury tax they'll go in order to get Jusuf Nurkic back. He's certainly one of the biggest pieces for the franchise outside of the backcourt, both for his post scoring and the defensive potential he still oozes. Olshey will likely start conservative with a $10-12 million annual offer, just enough to ensure he isn't poached away by any team's Mid-Level Exceptions. However, offers that go above $12-15 million a year will push Portland into the luxury tax already, with only 11 players under contract -- and over $120 million tied up in salaries for next season. The repeater tax would be almost unavoidable, and that is a dangerous territory to be in if the organization doesn't truly believe Nurkic, Lillard and McCollum are a championship-level trio. You also have to factor in the good play of Zach Collins, the rookie big man that could be the starting center moving forward, in any desire for the Blazers to head into the luxury tax for Nurkic. All it could take is one team to swoop in and offer Nurkic the tender of $15 million a year for four years before the Blazers back down and lose a key part of their future foundation. Whether that precipitates a trading of McCollum/ Lillard or is part of the sacrifice to keep the duo together remains to be seen. 3. Consider using picks to get off the salary of Evan Turner or Meyers Leonard Olshey and the Blazers missed a window a season ago to get rid of Evan Turner by packaging multiple of their three 2017 first-round picks with him to a team with cap space like the Sacramento Kings. A year later, the cost of unload Turner is even more expensive in another cap crunch summer where fewer teams have cap space and more teams are vying for it. But if Portland doesn't feel the need to deconstruct or shake up their two big stars, the next best alternative might be clearing cap space by trading Turner or Meyers Leonard now. The Turner contract costs a lot more to unload, while Leonard might only cost one first-round pick. Either way, the Blazers should explore every avenue possible to lighten their tax bill. Trading a player away for next to nothing for a second consecutive season isn't ideal, but it could be the only way for Portland to keep things together long-term. 4. If they keep the pick, get a shooting forward/ wing Portland has to believe that their lack of spacing from the 3 and 4 spots, and lack of multi-positional defenders, are some of the biggest flaws with the way the roster is currently constructed. That could also be the way to replace one of Ed Davis or Jusuf Nurkic naturally; expect there's enough depth at the 5 to downsize just a little bit naturally. Picking 24th, there should be plenty of ready-to-play 3-and-D wings that also qualify as some of the best guys left on the board. Boise State's Chandler Hutchison, Tulane's Melvin Frazier, Oregon's Troy Brown, Maryland's Kevin Huerter or Duke's Gary Trent Jr. could all be options available for the Blazers that make immediate impacts, space the floor and keep the ball rolling in the direction it has been for Portland. 5. The Allen Crabbe trade exception vs. free agent money Portland could go a lot of directions in the late-June or early July periods here, mainly revolving around decisions with Nurkic and McCollum. If McCollum stays, there are essentially two strategies the Blazers can take regardless of Nurkic: not pay to get off a big contract and retain their own free agents, or pay to unload a contract and add subtle tweaks to the roster. If part two is the path they take and the Blazers are in the buyers market at any point for a new player, the dilemma becomes this: should they use the Mid-Level Exception to sign a new player or the $12.96 million trade exception from Allen Crabbe they have. The Crabbe trade exception expires on July 25th. Personally, I'm a proponent of using the Crabbe exception instead of eating into the limited budget on free agency through the MLE. Portland, depending on how much they can shed salary-wise, but will be careful not to hard cap themselves by offering the Non-Taxpayer MLE of $8.8 million. Instead, the max value they'd likely be able to use is a $5.45 million multi-year deal. With the Crabbe deal they can go up to $12.96 million to get a player via trade AND inherit their Bird rights, allowing Portland to retain them above the cap in future years. Players like Courtney Lee from the Knicks, Wilson Chandler from Denver (if he exercises his player option), Jared Dudley from the Suns or Nikola Vucevic from Orlando could be attainable options that play right away and fill the immediate holes they'd create by shedding salary or letting some of their restricted free agents go. Of course, Portland doesn't have to use the entire $12.96 million exception, and can budget themselves based on how much space they have. Work through the math here with me... if they can shed Evan Turner's deal without taking anything back, and re-sign Jusuf Nurkic for $14 million a year, they'll have ten players on the roster and about $8 million between them and the luxury tax. Factor in the first-round pick and that comes to about $6.5 million from the luxury tax and $12.5 million from the tax apron. They can then bid modestly on guys like Napier and Connaughton, and then have around $7 million between them and the luxury tax. Would that be enough for the team to go after a guy like Justin Holiday of the Bulls or Jonas Jerebko from Utah? There are ways to go about the financial cutting this year where the Blazers are making minimal tweaks and trying to get better without blowing up their core trio of the future. Of course, that comes at a cost: they still spend a great deal of money, approach the tax apron and would have to give up multiple first-round picks. The most likely scenario is that Portland loses their starting center, but there are ways to keep him and add shooting on the wings. Minnesota Timberwolves
2017-18 Record: 47-35 2018 Draft Picks: 20th (from OKC), 48th Restricted Free Agents: F Nemanja Bjelicia, G Marcus Georges-Hunt, F/C Amile Jefferson Unrestricted Free Agents: PG Derrick Rose, G Jamal Crawford, PG Aaron Brooks Other Players of Note: C Cole Aldrich (only $2.05m guarantee if waived before June 20th) Committed Salary: $115,133,979 Luxury Tax Room: $7.5 million It was a little bit of a disappointing season for the Timberwolves, but it really shouldn't have been. Their core spent their first season together and are still young. Youngsters Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins both struggled with their defensive consistency, and their role players and thin bench would creep up on the team eventually. After an admirable fight against the Houston Rockets in the first round, Minnesota is now facing the additions of Andrew Wiggins' max extension and a huge deal for Karl-Anthony Towns a season from now. How will that impact the ways Tom Thibodeau and company shape the roster? Order of Operations 1. Fix Thibodeau's minutes allocation Look, the offseason moves that the team makes won't matter much if Thibodeau doesn't lighten the load he puts on his starters and utilizes his bench more. Agents are starting to be hesitant to send their veterans to Minnesota for a bench role based on Thibs' history of barely dipping into his bench and playing his key pieces nearly 40 minutes a night. There's plenty of data out there that suggests this has a negative effect on the Timberwolves and their best players, regardless of how young or tough they are. Frankly though, it doesn't matter what offseason moves the Wolves make to add more pieces to their roster if Thibs only plays a top-seven in the rotation. With Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng and Tyus Jones all coming back next year and the 20th pick coming in the draft, that rotation is already set. Unless Thibs commits to changing his philosophy a bit, there's little to no point to addressing free agency for Minnesota. 2. Lock up Towns & avoid the tax this year There's little reason to let one of the most skilled big men in the NBA even sniff free agency next summer. Minnesota should be prepared to break the bank on him and offer the maximum five-year, nearly $160 million deal whenever their negotiations can take place. While there's a little more complication to ironing out the kinks in a max contract than simply signing the dotted line, Minnesota knew that spending a boat load of money would be necessary when they found out the talent-levels of Towns and Wiggins then traded for Butler. The Wolves likely become a luxury tax team somewhere down the line. It's important to make sure that time isn't next season. With six open roster spots and $7.5 million between them and the luxury tax, ducking that number becomes a priority for the future. They could create a seventh roster opening and add $4.9 million or $5.8 million to their summer budget by waiving or stretching the contract of Cole Aldrich by the 30th of June, something they're likely to do. Seven roster spots, two draft picks and between $12 and $13 million to play with this summer? Certainly more enviable than some other situations for contenders around the league. 3. Draft around the Big Three With the 20th pick in the draft, Minnesota should be searching for a piece they believe can coexist long-term with the trio of Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns. What kind of piece could that be? A versatile 4-man, a long-term point guard or simply outside shooting. There are plenty of options available. Keep in mind: Minnesota also has last year's first-round pick Justin Patton still developing, and while raw he has a great deal of upside. One area the Wolves should be staying away from is at the center spot. Some names to watch for here: Ohio State's Keita Bates-Diop, Aaron Holiday of UCLA, Troy Brown from Oregon, Villanova's Donte DiVincenzo or Boise State's Chandler Hutchison. Minnesota can also find an intriguing piece late in the second-round that could help fill out their roster. Instead of trading that pick away or cashing it in on a draft-and-stash guy, the Wolves should use it as an opportunity to grab a player that can help now while also minimizing the cap hits of getting more bodies on their roster. Minnesota can likely sign two players here for less than $3 million next season, keeping their budget for free agency in tact. 4. What to do in free agency From the restricted free agency of 30-year-old Nemanja Bjelicia to properly estimating the external value of non-Bird free agent Derrick Rose, the front office in Minnesota needs to guess right on what their own guys are worth if their game plan is to work. Retaining Bjelicia, who the Wolves will likely tender for $4.94 million, shouldn't eat enough of their remaining cap space after the draft that Minnesota cannot effectively bid for players using their Mid-Level Exception. That would make the line in the sand for him somewhere around that $5 million mark... and that would pose a question of whether Bjelicia is better off just accepting the tender and being an unrestricted free agent next summer when more money is expected to circulate on the market. The opposite goes for a guy like Derrick Rose, who likely gets interest for higher payment than a minimum contract only from Minnesota. Is their front office patient enough to balk on him, focus elsewhere and then offer that minimum deal later in free agency? Both questions have a profound effect on their likely usage of the non-tax MLE, slated at a $5.5 million max. Minnesota will look to target some blue-chipper 3-and-D players that can thrive next to both Wiggins and Butler with that budget. Mario Hezonja from Orlando could be a nice option for the Wolves to consider. There is one other option here that could open up the full usage of that $5.5 million and allow them to bid a bit higher on Bjelicia: draft-and-stash in the first round. While I don't advocate for that from a financial standpoint (as the first-round pick at #20 is a great cap-saver), it is possible if the Wolves believe in a more aggressive win-now approach and think they accomplish that better through free agency than the draft. 5. How untouchable is Wiggins? Despite being committed to Wiggins with their max extension signed last year, it still seems entirely likely that the Wolves end up flipping him next year once he's trade eligible. That would be akin to what the Clippers did this last year with Blake Griffin, re-signing him to a mega deal and then flipping him soon after. We know Wiggins hasn't progressed the way the front office or ownership have hoped, so how vital is he in the long-term vision of the franchise? Once they enter that luxury tax territory, the pressure turns up for the franchise to win more games and make a deep postseason push. The point is this: if Wiggins doesn't fully aid that pursuit next season or the year after, this winter could be the time to shop him. Those plans must already be talked about and explored from a front office perspective. As the eyes of many NBA fans shift towards the postseason, some front office executives are thinking about how they can improve the fates of their franchises that are not currently vying for postseason play. The pre-draft process is filled with tons of scouting, evaluation periods, internal discussion and workouts for some of the hopeful rookies that want a spot in the NBA. Taking the drafting needs and picks into consideration, financial considerations can paint the biggest picture to what decisions will be made beyond the draft. Trading some players, utilizing cap space for taking on others, and preparing for free agency all are highly informed by the team's salary situations – after all, the NBA is a business. Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs exited the playoffs in the first-round in 2018, a disappointing finish for teams that expected postseason success. With major questions looming regarding their best players, cap situations and how to approach improvement, these are perhaps the two teams with key offseason forecasts this summer Oklahoma City Thunder 2017-18 Record: 48-34 2018 Draft Picks: 53rd, 57th (from BOS) Restricted Free Agents: none Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jerami Grant, F Josh Huestis, G/F Corey Brewer, PG Raymond Felton, C Nick Collison Other Players of Note: F Carmelo Anthony ($27.9m player option), G/F Paul George ($20.7m player option Committed Salary: $137,538,746 Luxury Tax Room: -$13,538,746 The numbers on the salary sheet are misleading, as they represent what could be the most conservative scenarios for a franchise expecting heavy tax bills. The Thunder expect Carmelo Anthony to opt into the $28 million clause in his contract to return next season, despite his overtures that he won't accept a bench role next year. Paul George on the other hand will likely decline his player option, hit the free agent market and cash in on a big payday. The numbers matter most for OKC, struggling to choose between retaining the superstar they gave up so much to acquire and the unsung role players around him and Russell Westbrook. A team with a core of Westbrook, Melo and Steven Adams isn't as explosive at the top as most NBA Playoff teams, so it seems likely that at this point the franchise is held ransom by meeting the demands of George. Will they be able to attract him back, and what is the cost of doing so? Order of Operations 1. Decide how aggressive they can be with Paul George Will the Thunder wade into the five-year max region in order to retain Paul George? That five-year max, worth approximately $176 million, would place the Thunder in an economic stranglehold. Next season alone Oklahoma City would be sitting at $147 million in player salaries with only ten guys under contract, no first-round pick and a tax bill north of $84 million. Yikes. If ownership gives the green light, they have to make the offer. However, the financial implications are deep. They'd likely tread over the $150 million mark in player salaries next season, then get a little relief next summer when Carmelo Anthony's albatross deal comes off the books. But with nearly $120 million in committed salaries for the 2019-20 season after a Paul George deal is signed, it doesn't give the Thunder a clear avenue to replace his production or realistically dodge the luxury tax again. The other option here is something similar to the Chris Paul trade from last year: George opts in solely with the intention of being traded, gets to choose his destination of teams that don't have cap space, and the Thunder eat matching salary back to make the deal work. It's a fairly implausible scenario, simply because OKC wouldn't get much immediate tax relief next year and George isn't likely to want to take the $12 million pay cut next year to opt in. This would be a plausible scenario if his desired destination is a cap-saddled place like Cleveland, however many teams that have been preparing for a push at George (the Lakers and Sixers) can clear the necessary cap space without engaging in a deal with Oklahoma City. At the end of the day, NBA franchises are unique investments: there are times when spending too much money and going into the red is a better course of action than trimming now to get into the green. It's not for us to decide which course ownership in OKC should take, but the severe cap mismanagement and backfire of the Carmelo deal are hurting the Thunder now. 2. Jerami Grant: the casualty of being in the tax Because the Thunder are simply too expensive, it's impossible to say that it is a good idea for the team to go into the luxury tax threshold to keep Jerami Grant. The tax penalty for retaining him on a $9 million annual contract would, for next year, be more than five-times as costly. Grant is an important piece with his defensive acumen and something resembling three-point shooting ability at times -- he's almost a better player right now than Carmelo. However, Grant will be targeted heavily on the free agent market, and the Thunder don't have the chops to pay north of $40 million in tax penalties to retain a bench piece. It's safer for the Thunder to just replace him on the minimum. 3. Trimming more salary Oklahoma City could try and clear a little more cap room by expediting departures for overpaid bench players like Kyle Singler, Patrick Patterson or Alex Abrines. In a vacuum, Abrines has value on the trade market, as some team might want to take a stab at his shooting prowess in the backcourt. Abrines would likely be flipped to a team with a little cap space or a traded player exception, such as Indiana, Toronto, Chicago or Phoenix. Singler or Patterson likely need to have a second-round pick attached to them, and both of OKC's picks in 2018, in the 50s of the second-round, likely aren't enough to pawn them off elsewhere. The Thunder can trade any of their future second-rounders, but those might be cheap ways in the future to dodge the tax when they're finally looking to get underneath it. 4. Is OKC an attractive destination for the Veteran Minimum crowd? Realistically the Thunder need to get multiple role players out of their veteran minimum contracts this year. The tax bill is such that, even if Paul George leaves, OKC will have only their Mid-Level Exception to replace him with a starter, and the bench has to be filled out this way. But most veterans, or at least the good ones who know they'll be on this type of contract, want to go to a place where a championship is a possibility, organizational harmony exists and there is a lack of toxicity. I'm not sure if Oklahoma City sounds like that place. Would some of the better, more versatile pieces like Richard Jefferson, Arron Afflalo or Amir Johnson really choose Oklahoma City over other suitors? Trying to build a team via the bargain bin is much more difficult in a year where the entire league is also doing so due to a lack of free agency money available. Everything here is just poor timing for the Thunder. 5. The Mid-Level or Josh Huestis At the end of the day, OKC might have a decision to make between treading the tax waters next year to retain Josh Huestis or utilizing their MLE to add a piece on the wings. The thought of losing three of their best defenders in George, Grant and Huestis is a tough pill to swallow for the organization. While Huestis hasn't developed on offense the way they'd hope, his Bird rights dictate that OKC might be best-served giving him a shot on a one-year deal worth slightly more than the minimum, then readdressing the situation a season from now when their long-term cap is more clear. At the very least it allows them to increase his value for a mid-season trade, as some other team might covet his Bird rights if he plays well. That might be the best way for the Thunder to increase their on-court production in the short-term while not bogging themselves down with a multi-year contract with the MLE. San Antonio Spurs
2017-18 Record: 47-35 2018 Draft Picks: 18th, 49th Restricted Free Agents: F Kyle Anderson, F/C Davis Bertans, G Bryn Forbes Unrestricted Free Agents: PG Tony Parker Other Players of Note: SG Danny Green ($10m player option), F Rudy Gay ($8.8m player option), F/C Joffrey Lauvergne ($1.65m player option), SG Brandon Paul (non-guaranteed contract) Committed Salary: $101,128,770 Luxury Tax Room: $20.9m San Antonio's 2017-18 campaign was as strange as one we can ever remember from the Popovich-era Spurs. With reports surfacing about discord between the usually pristinely-run franchise and their star player Kawhi Leonard, Kawhi ended up sitting most of the year due to injury concerns. The relationship has grown contentious, leading to a worrisome question for San Antonio: will their best player and one of the top stars in the league force his way out of town? It's the linchpin for all questions Spurs right now, although neither path provides certainty that San Antonio will get some form of superstar production next year. Some questionable contracts handed out last summer inhibit the team's ability to make major moves on the market without giving away Leonard. Order of Operations 1. Lay everything on the table with Kawhi San Antonio GM R.C. Buford and coach Gregg Popovich would be wise to bring in Leonard and lay out everything in front of him so that Kawhi makes the ultimate decision. On one hand, the Spurs are the only team that can offer him a mega-max deal worth north of $200 million. Leonard would be foolish to walk away from that type of extension if it is offered, considering the questionable nature of his leg injury this year. By asking Kawhi if his intention is to stay and seek that contract, San Antonio can remove the rumored trade demands from the surface once and for all, then proceed to build around a super-maxed Kawhi. That is, if they're comfortable offering it. The other way that conversation goes is if Kawhi does ask to leave, wanting a change of scenery and a new organization. If he's willing to sacrifice that much money, Kawhi instantly becomes the most valuable trade chip in the league. Leonard has two years at just over $20 million annually left on his deal, though he can opt out again next summer (not counting a 15 percent trade kicker, which would bring the deal to about $23 million). Because of league rules regarding extensions, any acquiring team wouldn't be able to extend him up to the max contract level, so Leonard would be likely to exercise his opt-out for next summer and cash in on the extension then. Still, getting his Bird Rights is insanely valuable, and that's what the Spurs would be charging for in any trade Ultimately, if I were in charge of the Spurs, I wouldn't force Kawhi's hand in any way. If he wants a trade, give it to him now and cash out while his value is still somewhat high. If he wants to work on repairing the relationship with the intent of getting that max contract in the future, the Spurs should be all in on embracing that. 2. Player Options The key to the Spurs' summer no matter what Kawhi does hangs in the hands of Danny Green and Rudy Gay. Green, who holds a $10 million player option, is unlikely to recoup that type of money elsewhere. Gay, with an $8.8 million player option, could be sought after for roughly the same price, while he's also unable to be retained by the Spurs for more money than the Mid-Level Exception if he opts out. Regardless of what they do, San Antonio will certainly act as an over-the-cap team due to the large cap holds of Danny Green and unrestricted free agent Tony Parker... there's not incentive for the team to ask Green to opt out so they can have the cap space, sign a new free agent and then re-sign Green. At this point, the Spurs, who have always been creative with how they manufacture cap space, don't have much of an option to do so this summer. Getting guys like Danny Green and Rudy Gay back would help them go into free agency with an idea of what positions of need they'll have. My guess: both of them, and big man Joffrey Lauvergne, exercise their player options and return. 3. Trust in the draft process This is the first time in over 20 years that the Spurs will have their own draft selection higher than 20th overall. Let that soak in for a second... There's a legitimate chance here that they can find an immediate impact player, and someone that helps the team move the needle forward to get back atop the Western Conference, even with an ancient roster. San Antonio has a lot of different ways it could go: another versatile and switchy player on the wings, a more mobile big man, or even an offensive-centric shooter. Based on what the Spurs have been evolving towards in order to keep up with the likes of Golden State and Houston, a versatile wing makes the most sense. Potential targets include Ohio State's Keita Bates-Diop, Khyri Thomas of Creighton, Boise State's Chandler Hutchison, Donte DiVincenzo of Villanova, Oregon's Troy Brown or Cincinnati's Jacob Evans. Perhaps my favorite fit for the Spurs though: Lonnie Walker, the long and lanky smooth scoring guard from Miami. If he somehow falls to the Spurs at 18th, they should rejoice, as the backcourt pairing of Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker is one to celebrate. 4. Mid-Level Exception & Bi-Annual Exception targets San Antonio is one of the few teams in the league that is likely to utilize their Bi-Annual Exception. The reason: they can retain their own free agents and remain far enough below the luxury tax to use both the full $8.8 million of the Mid-Level Exception and the $3.4 million of the Bi-Annual. That would be, though, assuming that both Green and Gay opt in, Anderson takes a team-friendly deal as an RFA, and they don't have much roster change with a Kawhi trade. San Antonio's most pressing needs on their roster involve shooting -- playing Aldridge at the 4 and Dejounte Murray as the starting point guard means spacing often gets cramped in the Alamo city. Would the MLE be enough to lure in a guy like Avery Bradley or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope? Other more reach candidates include Joe Harris and Wayne Ellington. That that $3.4 million Bi-Annual exception, San Antonio should be able to snag a good player at slightly below market value. It's a great year to use the Bi-Annual because many teams will only have the veteran minimum level deals to offer guys that fall through the cracks of the MLE. What about adding another frontcourt depth piece like Nemanja Bjelicia, Trevor Booker or Channing Frye? 5. Timing Ginobili decision, pricing of Parker There's little to anticipate with these guys: both will be back in San Antonio if both want to play next season. The question becomes if Ginobili will retire and how little of a salary Parker, who has perennially been underpaid, will accept. The timing of the communication between the two sides is key. For Parker, the Spurs don't want to overpay a point guard that will likely once again be coming off the bench for them. For Manu, the Spurs would benefit from hearing about Manu earlier in free agency, that way they have an extra $2.5 million to use before the market starts to dry up. The sooner the Spurs understand what it'll take to get these guys, the better off they'll be with negotiating their restricted free agents to ensure they avoid the tax. Add around $8 million for those three players and $8.8 from the Mid-Level Exception again and the Spurs are only a couple mill against the luxury tax. Every dollar matters here. As the eyes of many NBA fans shift towards the postseason, some front office executives are thinking about how they can improve the fates of their franchises that are not currently vying for postseason play. The pre-draft process is filled with tons of scouting, evaluation periods, internal discussion and workouts for some of the hopeful rookies that want a spot in the NBA. Taking the drafting needs and picks into consideration, financial considerations can paint the biggest picture to what decisions will be made beyond the draft. Trading some players, utilizing cap space for taking on others, and preparing for free agency all are highly informed by the team's salary situations – after all, the NBA is a business. Two Eastern Conference teams that made the playoffs and had early first-round exits have expensive rosters moving forward: the Washington Wizards and Miami Heat. Both are on unique timelines and interesting crossroads with how to build their rosters to win based on their cores. How will each team navigate the postseason? Miami Heat 2017-18 Record: 44-38 2018 Draft Picks: none Restricted Free Agents: none Unrestricted Free Agents: G Dwyane Wade, G Wayne Ellington, F Luke Babbitt, F Jordan Mickey, F/C Udonis Haslem Other Players of Note: G Rodney McGruder (non-guaranteed contract), C AJ Hammons ($1.54 million of a dead cap hit for next year) Committed Salary: $119,034,903 Luxury Tax Room: $3.4 million Miami will begin to feel the repercussions of the Tyler Johnson offer sheet once July 1st hits, the cost that the Heat had to pay two years ago in order to keep Johnson. His contract jumps from $5.8 million annually to $19.2 million, and that massive near $14 million increase, when coupled with the Josh Richardson extension that cuts in this year, raises the Heat's salary status dangerously close to the luxury tax bill. There are five roster spots to fill, and the Heat are only $3.4 below the luxury tax (and $9.4 million from the tax apron, where penalties start to be paid to the league). How will they balance filling those spots with competitive players while avoiding heavy luxury tax penalties? Without any draft picks that becomes more difficult, and many of their players under contract don't hold a ton of value on the trade market. Order of Operations 1. Rectify with or move on from Hassan Whiteside? The Heat are struggling to balance Whiteside's beliefs about his abilities, role and playing time versus the needs of the team. The center and coach Erik Spoelstra butted heads frequently during the late part of the season and the playoffs, where Whiteside struggled to guard perimeter-oriented big men and was abused by the likes of Joel Embiid. Hassan still believes in his strengths and wants to be treated like the star player of the organization. Miami's great asset - their depth and versatility - drove Spoelstra to look elsewhere for answers when Whiteside wasn't working out. The result could be lasting damage to their relationship. Whiteside will make $25.4 million in 2018-19, and has a player option for $27.1 million the next year. Finding someone willing to eat that $52 million for a problematic shot blocker won't be easy. Trading Whiteside can't be done with a sweetener in the way of draft picks, so to get him off the books Miami would have to either give up a desirable young piece or take back some less than desirable pieces. This isn't to say Hassan has no value on the trade market whatsoever, but there are only a few teams left that have the need for a starting center and could commit that amount of money to a big man. There are a few deals that could be out there for the Heat. They could call Sacramento, assuming the Kings don't get a franchise-caliber center in the draft, and offer Whiteside for Zach Randolph, Garrett Temple and Harry Giles. The same could be said for Phoenix, shipping him west for Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley and the 2019 Milwaukee Bucks pick. Dallas could get involved for Wes Matthews and a heavily protected first-round pick. Even trading him in division for Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross and a second-round pick could provide Miami the needed flexibility. Part of trading Whiteside is about getting back a quality big man that can either start or come off the bench to have an important impact, but the biggest gain would be cap space in 2019. Those three deals offer potential for both, as well as naturally finding more bodies to fill out the roster for next year without needing to spend in free agency. 2. Let Wayne Ellington go Ellington is, other than Dwyane Wade, the team's most important free agent. Wade is expected back on a veteran's minimum deal, but Ellington likely is looking for one last payday. He's a big-name shooter at a position that's in demand this summer, and his play from last season should mean there will be plenty of suitors ready to throw the Mid-Level Exception at him. That MLE should be worth around $8.8 million. Miami doesn't have Ellington's full Bird rights, meaning they could offer him anything as an over-the-cap to retain his services. Instead they hold his Early Bird rights, which allow them to offer a maximum of 105 percent of the average player salary (projected to be at around $8.6 million). That number, dollar for dollar, is just a shade less than a full Mid-Level Ellington could procure elsewhere. Unless Ellington has some allegiance to Miami, it could take the Heat offering a fourth year on a contract to keep him in South Beach. With the Heat already at $119 million, adding nearly $9 mill more to retain one player pushes them too close to the luxury tax to have flexibility elsewhere – it would be inevitable that they go over the tax apron unless they shed salary elsewhere. At his age, and with the financial commitment that would bog the team down as a result of retaining him, it might be best to simply not try and match full Mid-Level offers for Ellington. Heat fans won't be happy to see such an important cog in their rotation go, as Ellington shot 39 percent from deep last season. But for all those supporters doubting they can find an adequate replacement, consider this: Ellington is already 30 years old, and keeping him would likely require signing him until he's 33 or 34. Shooters like Ellington log plenty of mileage and, in the way Spoelstra utilized him, that leads to frequent wear and tear. With his limited defensive impact and strong performance in a contract year as indicators he might not be worth the investment, it isn't terrible if the Heat don't decide to keep Ellington. 3. Find a gem in Summer League There are two main ways the Heat can add to their roster with new players this summer: the Mid-Level Exception and through looking at undrafted rookies. The Mid-Level, likely to be dropped down to $5.45 million so they avoid the tax, could net them a decent piece next year, but also adds a good deal of expense moving forward. The other route is the one with more sway for the organization since they've proven able to find gems through their G-League program or undrafted rookies with their scouting department. Miami needs to fill out the bottom end of their roster with youth – it's the most cost-efficient way to do so, adds tremendous upside and brings long-term trade value to their group. Being nudged against the tax and with few holes in their rotation to fill, now is the time to take a flier on one or two young players. Watch what the Heat do this summer closely and who their top performers are. They love versatile pieces, have a strong G-League program run by Nevada Smith, and will undoubtedly unearth at least one more diamond in the rough. 4. Swing a trade for an alpha male? This one will be pretty difficult for the Heat, and while their glaring need for a go-to option reared its ugly head in the postseason they simply lack the assets to trade for one. Pat Riley lacks the top ingredient in trading for a star player like San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard: draft picks. Without first-rounders or many desirable pieces on their roster that can match salaries in a trade, it will be incredibly difficult to pull off a massive star. Without fail, Riley will try. The Heat have a culture that lends itself to getting the most out of star players. With an experienced coach, plenty of win-now role players and a division that is wide open, Miami could be on the short list for some high-profile names that want a trade. Pulling it off and making the finances work is a different story though. 5. Stay below the luxury tax apron Because the Heat have been below the luxury tax the past two seasons, the real line that ownership and the front office should seek to avoid is the projected $130 million luxury apron line. Being just $9 million and change short of the line right now, the Heat need to make sure they stay below that $130 million number. The key reason for that: going above that line two consecutive years would be incredibly costly, and Miami has very little by the way of roster turnover due in 2019. Because they won't have much money come off the books (and likely will add more) it will be difficult for them to duck the line next year if they aren't fiscally responsible this summer. Many are expecting the Heat to make an aggressive play, shake things up and find ways to get more competitive in the Eastern Conference – we've come to expect as much from Pat Riley. But it seems to be in the cards for them to maintain their consistency and solid all-around approach, explore a Whiteside trade, and stay out of the heavy fire on a seller's market. Washington Wizards
2017-18 Record: 43-39 2018 Draft Picks: 15th, 44th Restricted Free Agents: none Unrestricted Free Agents: G Ty Lawson, F/C Mike Scott, G Tim Frazier, PG Donald Sloan, F Chris McCullough Other Players of Note: SG Jodie Meeks ($3.45m player option), F/C Jason Smith ($5.45m player option) Committed Salary: $124,302,351 Luxury Tax Room: -$302,351 Everybody within the Wizards organization is on edge. For a team that has proudly touted themselves as a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference the last few years, their middling record and lack of postseason success suggest otherwise. Washington played up or down to the level of their competition frequently, and struggled through injuries and identity crises. Hopefully the "they're better off without John Wall" crowd is silenced and the Wizards can get back to touting the point guard as their franchise player. The Wall-Beal partnership, long wondered to be contentious, could be an issue moving forward. Those two and Otto Porter are all signed for at least the next three seasons, with the trio earning up to nearly $100 million in 2020-21. Combine them with a somewhat expensive glut of role players and there's little hope the Wizards take a big step forward without a financial commitment elsewhere or a bit of reshaping the roster. It could mean opening one of these three building blocks to the market. Order of Operations: 1. Duck the luxury tax... Step One: Stretch Ian Mahinmi The Wizards went into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last year, and appear to have no end in sight to their spending. With only $5.7 million between them and the tax apron line, where they'd have to pay a steep repeater tax, Washington will have to be very savvy if they want to avoid paying too much money for a roster that isn't a legitimate championship threat. The first step to that could come this summer by waiving center Ian Mahinmi via the stretch provision. That provision allows a team to stretch the remaining guaranteed money owed to a player out over 2x + 1 of the remaining years of the contract. Mahinmi, who is owed $31.7 million over the next two years, could be waived and have that money stretched over a five-year span. That could give Washington a costly $6.35 million cap hit until July 2023 - but it would save just under $10 million for next season. The Wizards don't want to eat $6 million in cash, and the cost of trading him to another team to eat that financial burden is likely in the range of multiple first-round picks, way too high a price to pay. If the Wizards need a little bit more of a blanket and want to make things work with their core without blowing it up, they will consider waiving Mahinmi. Once this is done, the Wizards will have five open roster spots, $9.5 million before the luxury tax and $15.5 million before the tax apron. That should give them plenty of room to make whatever decisions they find necessary to add players to their core. 2. Marcin Gortat, finding a starting center and "free agency via trade" Many of the issues chemistry-wise seem to stem from the relationship between John Wall and Marcin Gortat. While the two are connected in their play when things are going well, they both have strong words for each other and flamed out down the stretch. Gortat is already 34, had one of the worst statistical seasons of his career and is on the downslide of his career. He's owed $13.6 million in the 2018-19 season and will be a free agent afterwards. Now is the time for a tax-saddled team like Washington to explore trading him for a center that is their long-term solution as a starter. If Gortat rides out the remainder of his contract in Washington they'll be without a center and lack the cash to grab a starting-caliber one on the market. Their best course of action is essentially "free agency via trade", where they use Gortat's expiring now to absorb a long-term contract from a team looking for cap space. The $13.6 million from Gortat needs to match incoming salary, and while that on its face might not get them a starting-caliber center, the market of teams looking for cap space could mean it's a seller's market and the Wizards squeeze extra value out of this move. Finding a trade partner that needs both 2019 cap space and has a salary-matching center isn't exactly easy. Some names that come to mind: Denver and Mason Plumlee and Charlotte and Cody Zeller. If the Wizards want to add a higher-profile name, they'll likely have to package another player and potentially a pick with Gortat to get who they want. 3. Take the best player available in the draft Over the last few years the Wizards have struggled to find depth and have not drafted at a high level. They should value having the 15th pick in the draft as a blessing in disguise to add another piece that will help them long-term. Their salary situation and the amount of guaranteed money tied up in their Big Three over the next few years dictates the need for low-cost, high-impact players if they are going to compete in the East. Instead of trading this pick to create immediate financial flexibility, they should keep this pick and trade future lottery protected first-round selections if they must offload salary. With all the changes to their frontcourt that are needed, the Wizards aren't in a position where they must draft a center in order to fill the void. Their roster is still thin enough on the bench and in need of enough pieces that drafting the best player available at 15th should be their top priority. 4. Mid-Level Exception: Split it or use it in full? Here's the downside to Washington's model of paying high-end players at the top of their rotation and having to fill out their bench annually with minimum contract players: they're forced to play those guys heavy minutes, so they outperform the value of their contract and become too expensive for the Wizards to retain. This style of roster management hinges on hitting year after year in the veteran minimum market – especially for a team that doesn't have a history of drafting well. That exact scenario is why Mike Scott might be too expensive for the team unless they use their Mid-Level Exception on him. Why is that so relevant this offseason for the Wizards? The Wizards could break that mold with how they utilize their Mid-Level Exception this summer. By spending it all on one player, that would force the trend to continue, and mean Washington needs to sign at least two or three veteran minimum players to fill out the roster. Or, by splitting their Mid-Level among a couple of bench and rotation guys, they would minimize the need for Vet Minimum guys that need to make an impact. It's an interesting dilemma for the Wizards, and one that President Ernie Grunfeld must be prepared to tackle early in the summer. To complicate matters, the full Mid-Level Exception has enormous value this summer with a truncated market, so a good player would likely be available through this means. Signing such a player, however, would likely hard-cap the Wizards and further tighten their budget this summer -- almost mandating the stretching of Mahinmi. 5. Kelly Oubre Extension: What's the line in the sand? Oubre is in a unique bargaining position with the Wizards as he becomes extension eligible this summer. His agent should be able to tell that the team needs Oubre long-term, and the biggest way to ensure he's there is to lock him up this summer. Washington will want to keep him below market value, but without the leverage or desire to get into a bidding war for him next year, they will likely pony up and give Oubre a player-friendly deal. The question becomes where the line in the sand is for the Wizards to walk away from the negotiating table and risk Oubre as a restricted free agent in 2019. He's been a bit of a headache to deal with over the last three years, has shown flashes but inconsistent play and might be blocked to long-term minutes by Otto Porter. Paying a frustrating long-term backup an exorbitant amount of money is a quick way for the Wizards to handcuff themselves. Losing Oubre for nothing would be a difficult blow as well. Grunfeld and company should negotiate with severe caution. |
Adam SpinellaHead Boys Basketball Coach, Boys' Latin School (MD). Archives
September 2021
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