2018-19 Season Preview: Atlantic Division

The NBA season is here, and we at the Box and One are doing a quick NBA preview on each team in the league. The preview will include the following:

-A record projection and postseason finish
-Review of the depth chart
-One bold prediction
-Three things to watch
-Best-case and worst-case scenario

Without any further fluff or pomp, here's a quick preview on each team division by division, now wrapping up with the Atlantic. The top three teams in the East by most accounts reside here, and they'll be jockeying for position with the rest of the conference as they look to emerge for a shot at an NBA Championship.

Boston Celtics
Record Projection: 60-22, 1st in Division and 1st in the East
Playoff Finish: Lose in 7 games of the most thrilling NBA Finals ever

Positional Depth Chart
G - Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Brad Wanamaker
W - Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Jabari Bird
F - Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Semi Ojeleye, Guerschon Yabusele
P - Al Horford, Aron Baynes, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams

There's a ton of talent here, and all eyes are on the star lineup of Irving-Hayward-Brown-Tatum-Horford. There's plenty of depth and great pieces behind them, too. Marcus Smart continues to be underrated; he's the Draymond Green of the Eastern Conference. Terry Rozier exploded in the playoffs and will be looking to duplicate his output, and there's still stud role guys like Marcus Morris and Aron Baynes. Stevens is the separating factor between this team's talent and their achievement. They'll likely want to add a little shooting somewhere this season, but this is a team bred for beating the Warriors.

One Bold Prediction: The Celtics enter the NBA Finals as favorites

Sure, I'm on record predicting the Warriors have more regular season wins than the Celtics. But by June 1st, Boston will be far and away the hotter team, the group that breezes through the postseason and perhaps a healthier crew than Golden State. Their offense and defense are both top-three in the league and Stevens is Coach of the Year.

Three things to Watch:
1. Hayward's health - To say Gordon Hayward has looked rusty this preseason might be an understatement. He hasn't been the superstar-caliber player Boston hoped, but he's still the perfect talent on this team. That said, he needs to play at an All-Star level in order for Boston to compete for a title on a serious stage. Everyone in Boston has their eyes on him.

2. Balancing the cooks in the kitchen - Four alpha male type scorers emerge in Boston - and that's not even counting backup Terry Rozier. How Stevens divides the offense and manages the rotation will have a large effect on their success. Everyone needs their time and touches, and the danger about playing through all their scorers and through Kyrie too much is that they lose the great advantage gained when Horford is the playmaker. Stevens better also nip Kyrie's 4th quarter isolations in the bud early this year before he torpedoes some close ones.

3. What to do with Rozier - Somehow we've cooled down talking about Rozier as a trade piece. He's almost a certainty to be dealt in my opinion; the Celtics have far too many scorers to need Rozier, let alone pay a high price for him in free agency this summer. There are enough teams around the league that need a point guard (Orlando, Phoenix, perhaps San Antonio) for the Celtics to squeeze the right deal out of Rozier. Remember - they could have as many as four first-round picks next year, so their long-term depth shouldn't be a massive worry.

Best-Case Scenario: 65 wins, the one-seed, and the ability to avoid playing both Toronto and Philadelphia in the playoffs (this is the key for each team; avoiding playing both in a path to the NBA Finals dictates the necessity for a great regular season). Kyrie looks like an MVP-caliber player, Hayward is back to form, Tatum and Brown don't regress from an efficiency standpoint and they have the best defense in the NBA. A championship is not unreasonable.

Worst-Case Scenario: The pieces never truly blend. Boston wins 54 games on talent alone, and keeps Rozier as their backup. Horford gets hurt and misses a large period of time, and the team shoots in the bottom-half of the league in three-point percentage. They bow out in a tough second-round matchup. All four draft picks come due next year and Ainge has to scramble to defer his embarrassment of riches into useful assets.

Toronto Raptors
Record Projection: 55-27, 2nd in Atlantic and 2nd in the East
Playoff Finish: Lose a tightly-contested second-round series to Philadelphia

Positional Depth Chart
G - Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, Malachi Richardson, Lorenzo Brown
W - Danny Green, Delon Wright, CJ Miles
F - OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Malcolm Miller
P - Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, Greg Monroe
U - Kawhi Leonard

While I still don't understand the Casey firing, this team got remarkably better over the summer. Kawhi is a huge upgrade over DeRozan on both sides of the ball, and they didn't give up much of their young, versatile core to acquire him. Anunoby-Leonard-Green is a scary switchable lineup; put them with other guys like Siakam and Delon Wright and they can switch 1 thru 5 everywhere. Scoring guards VanVleet and All-Star Kyle Lowry will see upticks in production with Nurse fully calling the shots. They've got depth, versatility, defense, shot-making and balance. This is a really, really good team.

One Bold Prediction: Kawhi announces he'll re-sign with the Raptors before the season ends

Success heals all wounds. Kawhi is a warm-weather guy, but that doesn't mean he won't take to Toronto and the organization. Of course, the best indicator to his happiness will be his success and the team's ability to win games. I can see them being such a dominant team for stretches in the regular season that he buys in and wants to come back.

Three things to Watch:
1. Kawhi's health - Leonard is the best player to ever suit up for the organization from a talent perspective. If he can harness the pre-injury Leonard form that led him to rise up MVP boards, the Raptors are going to be great. Everything is dependent on him from that standpoint, and how he looks early in the season and stays healthy will push Toronto to the top of the East or let them be surpassed by Boston and Philadelphia.

2. Their crunch-time 5 - Now that they've got wing depth and switchability, who does Nick Nurse go to in close games at the 5? Ibaka is the stretch and rim protection guy, Valanciunas can force mismatches on the offensive end, and Siakam is the best blending of the two with his extreme versatility. Nurse might tinker with things throughout the season, and his choices are largely going to be situational, but this is an intriguing development for Toronto.

3. Bench mob - What might separate Toronto from their talented divisional counterparts is their supreme depth. If the Raptors can continue to operate at a high-plus level when their second unit is in the game, as they did last season, the Raptors will steal minutes and separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Best-Case Scenario: 60 wins, a healthy Kawhi that garners MVP votes and consideration. Masai gets redeemed for firing Casey and the offense is a high-level throughout the season. Lowry averages 24 a game, they make it to the NBA Finals after earning home-court throughout the Eastern playoffs, and push the Warriors.

Worst-Case Scenario: Kawhi looks timid on his leg. The Raptors fall to third in the East and barely eek out the Bucks to avoid the 4-hole. Their bench production regresses slightly, Nurse isn't an upgrade over Casey at all, and Leonard hates the Canadian winters and vows to leave in July.

Philadelphia 76ers
Record Projection: 55-27, 3rd in Division and 3rd in the East
Playoff Finish: Lose to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals

Positional Depth Chart
G - Markelle Fultz, JJ Redick, Landry Shamet, TJ McConnell, Jerryd Bayless
W - Robert Covington, Zhaire Smith, Furkan Korkmaz
F - Dario Saric, Wilson Chandler, Jonah Bolden
P - Joel Embiid, Mike Muscala, Amir Johnson
U - Ben Simmons

Philly has three of the most talented youngsters in the game. Simmons and Embiid are ready to take MVP-like leaps this year. Surprisingly, the Sixers are opting to bring Redick off the bench, which I think is a mistake they'll rectify by mid-season. A lot rides on Fultz if they'll take the next step. Their losses of veteran depth will hurt, but Muscala is a solid addition, and Landry Shamet has a role to play before the end of the year. If they can flip Bayless for something productive, GM Elton Brand will have had a successful first year.

One Bold Prediction: Saric moves to bench role

Somebody is going to get squeezed, and I think the Sixers will find that they're hard-pressed for quality shooting if Redick is off the floor. That means we'll see the closing lineup for Philly include Fultz-Redick-Covington-Simmons-Embiid. Saric is a tough guy to leave off, but the optics of the other lineup simply make too much sense. 

Three things to Watch:
1. Fultz - All eyes are on Fultz, for obvious reasons. Here's the biggest thing with Markelle: he's a super important piece when he's healthy. If he plays for the Sixers the way he did at Washington, they've got a three-headed monster on their hands. It's a big "if" right now, but all eyes will be on him.

2. Outside shooting - Related to Fultz comes the need for spacing. By playing around Embiid and Simmons, the Sixers have two guys that need shooting in order for them to thrive. Bringing Redick off the bench could reduce that, so the way guys like Covington and Saric hit from deep is pivotal. They'll also need Muscala and Shamet to be guys that make tons of shots when open. 

3. Simmons' next step - As a rookie, Simmons faced several defense that sagged off him on the perimeter. He had mixed results: was crafty enough to get to the rim and weave through traffic regardless, but the floor wasn't spaced well for others to get involved. Monitor his jumper, but more than that how defenses play him. I expect Brett Brown to be ready with numerous counters to teams that play very far off Simmons.

Best-Case Scenario: 61 wins and the one seed in the East. Simmons and Embiid are legit, Fultz looks like a future star and everyone shoots well. They make the NBA Finals and push the Warriors. Yes, it's possible!

Worst-Case Scenario: Fultz still cannot shoot and the clamors from the Philadelphia faithful rattle his confidence. Redick returns to the starting lineup, but the Sixers top out at around 54 wins. Suddenly the Sixers don't look like they're the class of the East, and are closer to Milwaukee than Boston and Toronto. No big-name free agents consider Philly next summer.

Brooklyn Nets
Record Projection: 34-48, 3rd in Division and 10th in the East
Playoff Finish: Not this year

Positional Depth Chart
G - Spencer Dinwiddie, D'Angelo Russell, Shabazz Napier
W - Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, Joe Harris, Treveon Graham, Dzanan Musa
F - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, DeMarre Carroll, Jared Dudley, Rodions Kurucs
P - Jarrett Allen, Ed Davis, Kenneth Faried

The veteran depth doesn't help them that much this year, only it gives them good locker room presence and some trade chips. Jarrett Allen and D'Angelo Russell are the two intriguing youngsters to watch. Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert are a crafty tandem, but there's not enough polish or shooting around them. Kenny Atkinson will continue to play fast and shoot threes, so guys like Crabbe, Harris, Graham and Russell are all vital. If Dinwiddie isn't all talk and actually plays close to an All-Star level, the Nets have a slim outside chance at making the playoffs.

One Bold Prediction: Jarrett Allen finishes top-three in Most Improved voting

This kid is going to be really good. He's super athletic and is already a good defender. Look for Allen to play meaningful minutes and have an incredibly positive impact, as well as finally get national recognition for being the highest-upside player in Brooklyn.

Three things to Watch:
1. Russell's development - Year four for D'Angelo, and he's never been a part of a winning team. That likely won't change, but the Nets might be able to determine if moving on from him would be addition by subtraction. His defense is the key, and the area where he needs to improve, along with his finishing at the rim.

2. Atkinson's system - Many believe that, under the guise of player development and a good deal of shooters on the roster, everyone in Brooklyn will benefit. If the continuity and increased development pays off, the Nets could climb north of 30 wins.

3. Buyout season - Watch for Brooklyn closer to the postseason. If they're out of the hunt, they'll waive a lot of their vets, let them sign for contenders and sign cheaper players instead. The youth market might change between now and March, but the Nets will be a fascinating collection of tryout names during the final month.

Best-Case Scenario: 38 wins and narrowly missing the playoffs. The postseason is a bit of a pipedream simply because they lack the star power to truly make it. Dinwiddie, Russell and Allen all coexist well, and the team shoots the lights out once again.

Worst-Case Scenario: Russell falters, they miss a ton of threes and make no strides on the defensive end. They win enough games to convince themselves the youngsters are fine, but in actuality they aren't. Brooklyn wins 26 games, then opts to keep the youngsters instead of gut the system when they have the chance this summer.

New York Knicks
Record Projection: 24-58, 5th in Division and 13th in the Eastern Conference
Playoff Finish: LOL

Positional Depth Chart
G - Frank Ntilikina, Trey Burke, Emmanuel Mudiay, Ron Baker
W - Tim Hardaway Jr., Kevin Knox, Courtney Lee, Damyean Dotson
F - Lance Thomas, Mario Hezonja
P - Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter, Noah Vonleh, Mitchell Robinson, Luke Kornet

I really don't expect Porzingis to play this year, and if he does it's meaningless minutes in terms of winning games. That said, no team has worse spacing in the league. Knox has a ton of upside; other than Hardaway they don't have a knock-down guy. Ntilikina isn't a point guard, so the more they play him off the ball will benefit his production. Robinson has some upside as a rookie, and I like guys like Hezonja, Vonleh and Mudiay as fliers. Still, there's no top-level talent without Porzingis. These Knicks are going to be really, really stinking bad.

One Bold Prediction: Lance Thomas and Courtney Lee are traded

Both guys are plus defenders and have versatility; they're veterans and will blend in with anybody around the deadline. Will either end up staying in New York past the All-Star Break? Nope. Look for teams in need of veteran depth to call the Knicks, and Scott Perry to be antsy about giving them away.

Three things to Watch:
1. The Trey Burke phenomenon - Burke looked great last year, like a slippery AI-type of scorer in bursts. If the Knicks get that same production out of him, he has a chance to be a legitimate building block here.

2. Ntilikina and Knox lineups together - Do these two guys make sense running together, especially when a non-shooter like Kanter is at the 5? They are the two most recent picks, and guys the Knicks definitely want to see improve and gel. Watch for how they both fare when on the court together, and who they share it with.

3. Front office patience - Owner James Dolan is notoriously impatient and wanting to skip steps to win. He's said to have given the front office patience, but without their best player for most of the year the warts might come to show. Will Doles pressure his guys into fast-forwarding the timeline?

Best-Case Scenario: Porzingis comes back and looks healthy in early February. They get 30 games out of him, and he performs well. Porzingis, Knox and Ntilikina all look great. They snag a high pick after a poor record, Kevin Durant comes to the franchise and with their golden goose through free agency the franchise looks up.

Worst-Case Scenario: Porzingis doesn't play and things are a train wreck. The Knicks cannot get off Courtney Lee's contract and fail to open up space for two max guys. Knox and Ntilikina don't mesh, and one of them suffers an injury that costs them valuable developmental time.