2018-19 Season Preview: Northwest Division

The NBA season is here, and we at the Box and One are doing a quick NBA preview on each team in the league. The preview will include the following:

-A record projection and postseason finish
-Review of the depth chart
-One bold prediction
-Three things to watch
-Best-case and worst-case scenario

Without any further fluff or pomp, here's a quick preview on each team division by division, starting here in the Northwest Division. All five teams are playoff threats, and each team won at least 46 games last season. How will they stack up against the rest of the West?

Utah Jazz
Record Projection: 54-28, 1st in Division and 3rd in Western Conference Finish
Playoff Finish: Western Conference Finals

Positional Depth Chart
G - Donovan Mitchell, Ricky Rubio, Grayson Allen, Raul Neto
W - Joe Ingles, Dante Exum, Alec Burks, Thabo Sefolosha
F - Jae Crowder, Royce O'Neale, Georges Niang
P - Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Ekpe Udoh, Tony Bradley

The Jazz were up and down with their three-man pairing of Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors and Ricky Rubio last season. As Favors and Gobert are likely to start games side-by-side, the question about their depth comes with where they finish. Do they impose their size by having the Favors-Gobert tandem at the 4 and 5, or opt for more spacing with Crowder at the 4? There's quietly some nice depth 1 thru 3 in Utah, with Grayson Allen looking like he can shoulder a scoring load off the bench and play some big minutes, and expectations will be high for Dante Exum on the defensive end. Coach Quin Snyder has many pieces to plug in for whatever he'll need

One Bold Prediction: Jazz make the Western Conference Finals

Last season Utah was swept aside by the Houston Rockets rather quickly in the postseason. This year might be different, with the Rockets now losing some of their defensive punch and Utah tightening up their rotation with some depth. Should the Jazz stay healthy and continue to produce on the offensive end at the level they did last season, they'll make the Conference Finals.

Three things to Watch:
1. Derrick Favors minutes - Despite Favors thriving last year next to Gobert, the pair is still an odd grouping. Now that Utah has so much depth at the 4-spot, will Favors, arguably one of the more underrated players in the game, see his time cut into in favor of the likes of Crowder and Royce O'Neale?

2. Three-point shooting - The Jazz got a career year out of Ricky Rubio (35 percent) last season, and solid production from Donovan Mitchell (34 percent). Will role players like Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder and Dante Exum be able to space the floor effectively enough to make the Jazz offense as efficient as it was at the end of last season? My money's on Grayson Allen making a large impact, for what it's worth.

3. The mid-season aggressive move - This might be the year Utah makes a win-now motivated deal in February. The expiring contract of Alec Burks might be able to get them a decent veteran around the league that can help on the wings. Courtney Lee comes to mind as a realistic target.

Best-Case Scenario: 56 wins (an 8-win jump from last season), a Western Conference Finals appearance. Donovan Mitchell takes another step forward offensively, Gobert wins DPOY and both Exum and Crowder splash above 34 percent from deep.

Worst-Case Scenario: One of their pillars goes down to an injury and their lack of high-end players at either end show in a loaded Western Conference. The Jazz barely squeak into the postseason despite poor shooting and go down in the first round to the Warriors.

Denver Nuggets
Record Projection: 52-30, 2nd in Division and 4th in Western Conference Finish
Playoff Finish: 1st round exit at the hands of the Lakers

Positional Depth Chart
G - Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Isaiah Thomas, Monte Morris
W - Will Barton, Torrey Craig, Malik Beasley
F - Paul Millsap, Trey Lyles, Juan Hernangomez, Michael Porter Jr., Jarred Vanderbilt
P - Nikola Jokic, Mason Plumlee

Denver made some moves this summer to really beef up their timetable. Continuity is on their side, and they took fliers on talented guys like Isaiah Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. That being said, the biggest boost to a team that narrowly missed the playoffs last year is the return of Paul Millsap. He's one sturdy defensive presence on a team in dire need of a general on that end.

One Bold Prediction: Isaiah Thomas averages 17 points per game

There were a few thoughts bouncing around about the Nuggets this season, but the one I feel safest with is regarding Isaiah. He's a born scorer, and in a system where the opposing big men are lifted from the rim and a high-octane, high-speed attack, he's going to get his. Thomas gets himself in the 6th man conversation, but his scoring efficiencies are off the charts and he helps propel the Nuggets to a top-five offense this year.

Three things to Watch:
1. Can Harris, Murray and I.T. play together? - The three guards are all proficient scorers and serve really important roles in Denver's spread offense around high-post passer Nikola Jokic. The issue is on the defensive end, where the trio likely cannot log heavy minutes together, if any at all. Perhaps coach Mike Malone has a work-around...

2. Which youngster steps up? - Right now, the Nuggets are about eight deep when healthy. They need one or two more role players to be ready for a competent 12 to 18 minutes a night. Two of Torrey Craig, Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez and Monte Morris will have to do the job.

3. Defense, defense, defense - Everyone around the league knows this is Denver's weakness, and they double-downed on offense this summer instead of searching for a wing. 

Best-Case Scenario: The Nuggets jump into a top-three seed and avoid a second-round run-in with the Warriors. They out-tempo their first-round opponent before falling in the semifinals. Jokic puts up unreal numbers all season, Isaiah looks healthy and the defense clots just enough to win some close games throughout the regular season.

Worst-Case Scenario: Jokic goes down to injury, and both Isaiah and Michael Porter are net-zeros this season. The offense and defense both sputter, and all the hype about Denver's arsenal falls to the wayside without their top star. The Nuggets miss the playoffs once again, falling a few games short of .500 and fire Michael Malone in mid-February when the ship appears to be sinking.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Record Projection: 49-33, 3rd in Division and 6th in Western Conference Finish
Playoff Finish: 1st round loss to Utah

Positional Depth Chart
G - Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder, Raymond Felton
W - Paul George, Alex Abrines, Terrence Ferguson, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Hamadou Diallo
F - Andre Roberson, Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson, Abdel Nader
P - Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel

Losing Carmelo Anthony and replacing him with Nerlens Noel and Dennis Schroder is a huge win for the franchise. Win number one, of course, was keeping Paul George. It's easy to see a great deal of talent here and like it, but injuries are plaguing them to start the season, and they still lack a bit of outside shooting to be truly a top contender in the West.

One Bold Prediction: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot plays 24 minutes per game this season. 

Not that this prediction exactly sets the world on fire, but I'm expecting TLC to assert himself as a vital cog in their rotation off the bench. He's a long and crafty combo that shoots the ball well and can make an impact in a hurry. He'll get a chance to shine early due to injuries and never give back the minutes he earns.

Three things to Watch:
1. Health & early season footing - The Thunder might be without both of Andre Roberson and Russell Westbrook for a decent chunk of the season. Those are two pieces they don't want to be without. The early-season start for a group led by Dennis Schroder, Paul George and Steven Adams (still not the worst trio in the world) will dictate where the Thunder land in the postseason race.

2. Can Roberson play in crunch time? - The guy is absolutely one of the best defenders in the league and has a vital role in Oklahoma City's success. He'll give an impassioned 28 minutes, but if the game is close in the final minute, can Billy Donovan gut it out with him thanks to his putrid free throw shooting (31 percent last season)?

3. The Schroder-Westbrook pairing - These two famously want the ball in their hands and go out of their way to keep themselves involved from a statistical standpoint. They're a fascinating tandem on both ends, and with their similar skill sets and positions, how much will Donovan roll with them at the same time? Their lack of depth, health and how much they continue to tinker with the roster (they still have an open roster spot) will play roles in answering that question

Best-Case Scenario: Westbrook and Roberson miss minimal time. The Thunder avoid the injury bug and their defense is one of the three-best in the league. PG-13 once again posts a highly-efficient season, Adams continues to be an unheralded star and Roberson gets DPOY votes. Oklahoma City wins 54 games and gets to host a first-round series, while avoiding LeBron in the first-round.

Worst-Case Scenario: Westbrook guts out his knee injury early in the season only for it to catch up with him later. The Thunder lose their motor for a while, and Roberson doesn't return until Christmas. That digs Oklahoma City into a hole where they're sub-.500 in early December, and climbing out of it only puts them on the lower end of the playoff picture. They squeak in but their shooting inconsistencies and lack of depth doom them. Nerlens Noel provides no value and their lack of depth on the wings catches up to them against switchy teams like Houston and Golden State.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Record Projection: 41-41, 4th in Division and 10th in Western Conference Finish
Playoff Finish: Miss the playoffs by 3 games

Positional Depth Chart
G - Jeff Teague, Tyus Jones, Derrick Rose, Josh Okogie
W - Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, James Nunnaly
F - Taj Gibson, Anthony Tolliver, Luol Deng, Keita Bates-Diop
P - Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng, Justin Patton

The ongoing question revolves around the drama unfolding with Jimmy Butler. He appears to be with the team at the start of the season, and the Wolves will look to run up their win total with him, hoping that will heal all wounds currently opened. It's still likely they deal him by mid-season, though, when a team that thinks Butler will put them over the top to compete comes calling. Until then, the Wolves have some plodding forwards, need to clear more minutes for Tyus Jones and still have no defensive depth behind Butler.

One Bold Prediction: Jimmy Butler ends up in a Clipper uniform

Thibodeau and company get off to a solid start, but the divides never truly settle in the locker room. A mid-January trade of Butler gets Minnesota just what they want: some solid depth, youth and the ability to unload the Gorgui Dieng contract. Butler can't finish the season here, can he?

Three things to Watch:
1. Wiggins and Towns development - The manner in which Butler delivered his message might not have been productive, but that doesn't mean the message is wrong. These two need to play more inspired defense and do the little things required of winning. Minnesota may have topped out last season despite their young talent; it'll take these two to right the ship and get above the 50-win plateau.

2. Derrick Rose and Tyus Jones - Thibodeau trusted Rose more in big stretches last season than Jones, who appeared to play better analytically and according to the eye test. Whatever happens with Butler, the emergence of one of these two, if not both, to be important players in the rotation could be the difference in the Wolves' chances at rising out West.

3. Thibodeau and ownership - Nobody on the outside truly knows how attitudes are within their front office and internal to the organization. The push-pull dynamic between the two sides regarding Butler's movement is fascinating to watch unfold. The biggest and not talked about dynamic: how the drama continues to wear on a team filled with younger players in need of important development.

Best-Case Scenario: Butler puts this behind him and propels the Wolves to a great record in the first-half of the season. Minnesota deals him anyway - taking the long-term view and hoping Durant leaves the Warriors this summer – and gets a good return. They make the playoffs after winning 50 games and push someone to seven games in the playoffs. Thibodeau keeps his job, Towns and Wiggins improve and next year everyone is excited for this team's long-term prospects.

Worst-Case Scenario: The preseason drama is simply too much to shake. Minnesota gets off to a sluggish start, things get worse between Butler and management, and they deal him before Christmas. The uninspired Wolves win 35 games as they try to figure out why the talent isn't enough (spoiler: it's effort and defense). Thibodeau gets the can in mid-March from the GM role and then fired in April. Derrick Rose tears his ACL.

Portland Trail Blazers
Record Projection: 41-41, 4th in Division and 10th in Western Conference Finish
Playoff Finish: 3 games out of the playoffs

Positional Depth Chart
G - Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Wade Baldwin IV, Anfernee Simons
W - Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless, Nik Stauskas, Gary Trent Jr.
F - Al-Farouq Aminu, Jake Layman
P - Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins, Myers Leonard, Caleb Swanigan

Portland's bread and butter has been and will continue to be Lillard and McCollum. Teams started to figure out their down-screen and flare-screen offense last season; how Terry Stotts employs both with a lack of shooting around them will be a big thing to watch. The development of Zach Collins is huge; Portland needs to find one of their posts that can share the floor with Nurkic. The players farther back on their depth chart on the wings provide their spacing; will necessity get them to surpass the likes of Turner, Harkless and Aminu?

One Bold Prediction: Portland misses the playoffs

An eight-win reduction from a season ago isn't really bold in my book, but the Blazers talk a big game after being a top-three seed a season ago. Changes in offense usually take some time to blend (meaning the Blazers will start worse than they have the last few years) and I still have major concerns about spacing around a Lillard or McCollum ball screen attack. Their depth isn't that great, and cap that with my thought that Zach Collins is overrated, I'm feeling comfortable in holding the Blazers back from the playoffs.

Three things to Watch:
1. Evan Turner's role - Turner isn't really a strong defender and cannot shoot a lick. His value has been holding the ball while Lillard and McCollum zip off screens around them and patrolling the second unit when they need a rest. Turner seems well-equip for a super-sub role, but the more minutes he plays alongside their superstar backcourt the worse things are in Portland.

2. The next step for Zach Collins - Collins needs a big year, simply in terms of his spacing on offense and upside on defense. He's long and athletic, moves very well and needs to be able to defend 4s to stay on the floor. If he turns into a super-stretch 4 or stretch-5 at times, the Blazers are probably in good shape.

3. Seth Curry's defense - I low-key loved this signing for the Blazers. If one player single-handedly saves their season, it could be Curry. However, Lillard and McCollum are uninspiring defenders in their own right. Curry doesn't help move the needle forward here, but they need him for offensive purposes. If he's just mediocre on defense, it's a huge win for the Blazers.

Best-Case Scenario: A refreshed offense looks great. Lillard and McCollum both get All-NBA nods and Nurkic looks worth his contract. The bench players step up, their focus on outside shooting this summer makes the difference and their defense is able to get by. Portland wins 50 games and wins the division once again - this time without a sweep in the first round.

Worst-Case Scenario: Stotts cannot figure out his rotation, balancing the defensive-minded and athletic returners with some high-caliber shooting newcomers that bleed on the other end. Zach Collins doesn't take a step forward, and now the Blazers are looking in the mirror for how they've drafted the last three years. Portland misses the playoffs after one injury (they've been lucky to avoid them the last few seasons) and now must face whether keeping themselves in the luxury tax is worthwhile.