The NBA season is here, and we at the Box and One are doing a quick NBA preview on each team in the league. The preview will include the following: -A record projection and postseason finish -Review of the depth chart -One bold prediction -Three things to watch -Best-case and worst-case scenario Without any further fluff or pomp, here's a quick preview on each team division by division, starting here in the Pacific. The new-look Lakers lead by LeBron are lusting after the Warriors wide title window. Can they catch them, and are they closer to the Warriors than to their cross-town rival? Golden State Warriors Record Projection: 66-16, 1st in Division and 1st in Western Conference Finish Playoff Finish: NBA Champions Positional Depth Chart G - Stephen Curry, Quinn Cook W - Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Jacob Evans F - Draymond Green, Jordan Bell, Kevon Looney, Jonas Jerebko, Alfonso McKinnie P - DeMarcus Cousins, Damian Jones U - Kevin Durant All eyes are obviously on Cousins, the insane talent infusion the Warriors certainly didn't need. Cousins might be a breath of fresh air for the Dubs, as he'll scratch and claw for recognition in a contract year - and as a guy that's never made the playoffs. The door is still open for a Patrick McCaw return, and the plethora of switchy wings and forwards has always been Golden State's mantra. They're down some veterans on the bench, so their reserves will have a different flavor this year. Kevin Durant, a multi-positional unicorn, will be the topic of much debate as he might enter free agency this summer. One Bold Prediction: Jacob Evans plays meaningful minutes in the Finals. It might not be 12 minutes per game, or clutch time on the floor in the deciding minutes, but Jacob Evans will see the floor in June this year. He'll have a few meaningful plays on both ends and knock down some important shots. Warriors fans who know Iguodala is retiring will breathe easy after seeing his performance. Three things to Watch: 1. The Cousins fit - Everyone is wondering if they now have too much talent. To me the issue is a fit in the locker room and whether Cousins personality brings out the worst in their guys. Draymond is already hot-headed, Durant is known for technical fouls, and even Curry can get whiny at times. Kerr certainly has his work cut out for him from a philosophical standpoint this year, and hopefully the Dubs don't angle their frustrations too frequently in a negative way. 2. The collective odometer - Making four-straight NBA Finals appearances adds the mileage to the odometer. So much of who the Warriors bring back have been a part of the run, and been important pieces in their success. At some point they'll have to figure out appropriate rest patterns and perhaps wear down. I'm not banking on it, but I am watching more closely this season. 3. Injury bug - The only thing that should derail Golden State from being in the Final Four of teams this season is the injury bug. While Houston and others are looming more dangerous than in the past, the pendulum would shift far in the other direction should one of Golden State's key players miss a postseason run. Best-Case Scenario: 70 wins and an NBA Finals. Pretty ho-hum for the Bay Area these days. No injuries, no issues off the floor and Boogie makes an All-NBA appearance. Could they actually get five guys on the list? Worst-Case Scenario: Injuries strike and the Warriors somehow falter in the Western Conference Finals. Pretty simple, isn't it? Los Angeles Lakers Record Projection: 49-33, 2nd in Division and 5th in Western Conference Finish Playoff Finish: Competitive six-game series with the Warriors in the second-round Positional Depth Chart G - Lonzo Ball, Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Josh Hart, Svi Mykhailiuk W - Brandon Ingram, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope F - Kyle Kuzma, Michael Beasley, Mortiz Wagner, Isaac Bonga P - JaVale McGee, Ivica Zubac U - LeBron James It's a strange fit around LeBron's West Coast dream. The Lakers are guard-heavy, and we're all waiting anxiously to see how much Luke Walton puts LeBron at the 5. This is a roster with veterans that are all poor shooters and youngsters built to run. That's not exactly the dream concoction in theory next to the greatest player in the league. Will it fare any better in practice? One Bold Prediction: Lonzo Ball emerges easily as their second-best player Everyone seems to be focused on Brandon Ingram right now, thanks to his scoring potential and length. My focus is on Ball, an incredible passer that has worked on his scoring and spot-up potential this summer. Putting him under the tutelage of Rondo and next to the IQ of LeBron will only bring out the best in the youngster. Three things to Watch: 1. Trade and free agent markets - The Lakers have some maneuverability and flexibility to make a splash, and undoubtedly they will. This roster isn't a finished product for their hopes this season. One thing has been made clear: Magic Johnson isn't willing to cut corners to get success and won't compromise a strong summer in 2019's free agency just to win a few more games. 2. Three-point shooting - Yes, it's a big concern. Guys like Rondo, Lonzo, Lance and Beasley will all need to prove their chops at spacing the floor. When the games get tight and LeBron takes over, you better be ready for some super-small, super-fast and spacing teams on the floor. 3. LeBron guarding 5s - There's little to no doubt that LeBron at the 5 on offense is lethal. Surround him with the right parts and the Lakers will be tough to stop. My questions are on the other end, where the Lakers might be able to neutralize smaller teams but where LeBron's going to struggle with the more physical teams that are prepared to exploit him. Best-Case Scenario: The regular season serves as a learning experience for the team, and things come together by mid-March. They make the playoffs and get home-court for the first round, and then jut along to the second round before pushing the Warriors in a tight series. LeBron wins MVP and the Lakers attract a stud this summer by doing enough this year to warrant greatness. Worst-Case Scenario: LeBron's henchmen aren't who he thought they were. He puts up great numbers but they fail to properly space and defend. Lakers narrowly miss the playoffs, LeBron passive-aggressively calls out the entire organization and the Cavaliers, who sneak into the playoffs as the 8-seed out East, laugh really loud. Los Angeles Clippers Record Projection: 45-37, 3rd in Division and 7th in Western Conference Finish Playoff Finish: 1st round and out Positional Depth Chart G - Avery Bradley, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Milos Teodosic W - Jerome Robinson, Tyrone Wallace, Sindarius Thornwell F - Tobias Harris, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Scott P - Marcin Gortat, Montrezl Harrell, Boban Marjanovic The Clippers are the deepest team in the NBA, but they feature little to no star power. Doc Rivers needs to make sure the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. They're really guard heavy, but Bradley, SGA and Beverley are all tough defenders and can guard up. Tobias Harris is the main go-to scorer here, but they'll need a number two to emerge. Curious to see how much Jerome Robinson and Gilgeous-Alexander force their way onto the floor. Literally 14 of their 15 guys are rotation-caliber NBA players though; Doc has to figure out the best ways to use them. One Bold Prediction: The Clippers acquire Jimmy Butler in January. Doc will turn the depth into something competitive, and they'll see trading for a superstar like Butler as the piece that puts them over the top of their competition. The Clippers will have to part from a pick somewhere along the way, but they'll finish the season with Jimmy Butler as their number-one option, Tobias as the number two and still a great deal of depth and versatility around them. Three things to Watch: 1. The backcourt rotation - Doc has so many pieces to play in the puzzle ahead of him. He has scorers (Lou Williams and Jerome Robinson), defenders (Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverley), a playmaker in Milos Teodosic and a slasher in SGA. Figure out the right ways to pair them and harness their skills, and the Clippers can dice opponents. It will be very curious to see if the two rookies can force their way onto the court and make this rotation super deep. 2. Montrezl Harrell - Quietly I'm really excited for Harrell this season. Gortat is good in short stretches and has a lot of value as a screener and rebounder. Harrell seems to fit with pushing tempo, playing above the rim and a more defensively versatile group. Putting him at the 5 could mean big things for the Clippers against the right opponents. 3. The health of Danilo Gallinari - While the Clippers are deep, they also have a couple non-athletes, older role players and guys that have targets on their backs defensively. Gallinari checks all three of those boxes. He's recovering from a serious injury, but can be a huge part of what they're doing. If he isn't working, his minutes can be swallowed up by guys like Mike Scott and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Best-Case Scenario: A great start to the season, which we've seen before under Doc Rivers. Both rookies look fantastic from the jump. The Clippers are in the hunt in the West at the New Year and the front office makes a deal for Jimmy Butler. With him as their All-Star, the Clippers push towards one of the five-best records in the league after the All-Star break, make their way up to a top-six seed and pull off an incredible first-round upset behind Butler's competitiveness, Doc's tutelage and the right mixture of healthy role players. Worst-Case Scenario: The lack of star power dooms them. The right combination of guys having an off night throws a wrench into Doc's plans and rotation patterns. Gallinari provides nothing, the rookies don't establish themselves in a positive manner and Gortat looks downright old. L.A. punts this year going 33-49 and heads into free agency with optimism. Phoenix Suns Record Projection: 28-54, 4th in Division and 14th in Western Conference Playoff Finish: Yeah not this year Positional Depth Chart G - Devin Booker, Jamal Crawford, De'Anthony Melton, Isaiah Canaan, Elie Okobo W - Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, Troy Daniels, Davon Reed F - Trevor Ariza, TJ Warren, Ryan Anderson, Dragan Bender P - DeAndre Ayton, Tyson Chandler, Richaun Holmes At the time of this writing, the Suns have announced they're signing Jamal Crawford, but not whose roster spot he'll take. He should help with ball handling, though. DeAndre Ayton had a great season. If the Suns are going to push for the playoffs like they hope, it has to be because he impacts the game at an All-Star level all season long. I like their wing and forward combinations of Jackson/ Bridges/ Ariza/ Warren. Pick two of them together and they're good; not sure if they get enough shooting and playmaking to put three of them together. They still desperately need a point guard that can get into the lane, or someone that gets Booker an easy shot. They'll shoot the ball well, though, and can beat anyone in this league when they're on. One Bold Prediction: We hear rumors about the Suns acquiring Kemba Walker all the way up to the deadline. I'm not quite confident enough in this one to say it will happen, but Robert Sarver is clearly the one calling the shots here. And he wants to win yesterday. If Charlotte struggles out of the gate, expect the Kemba rumors to be flying around. Don't be shocked if Phoenix is the most aggressive team on the market shopping for him, willing to give up a couple picks and Tyson Chandler to make it happen. A long-term team of Kemba, Booker and Ayton with guys like Jackson, Mikal Bridges and TJ Warren? Not bad at all. Three things to Watch: 1. Booker's turnovers - If Devin Booker is going to be asked to do a lot of heavy lifting with the ball in his hands, Phoenix has to monitor his efficiency. Turnovers plague young players, and unfortunately for Booker it looks like he may have this role by default. I'm willing to be he is top-three in the league in turnovers this year. 2. Veteran movement - Guys like Ryan Anderson and Tyson Chandler are ripe for buyouts or some sort of deal by March if the Suns are fully out of the race. Will the Suns try to put anything into getting value out of them that could net the organization an asset? Anderson is an under-the-radar pick to have a renaissance. Perhaps he finds his footing a bit in Phoenix. 3. Big steps from youngsters - Josh Jackson looked pretty good as a rookie next year, but he needs to continue his development to become a true threat on both ends. Mikal Bridges was heralded as one of the most ready-to-play rookies in this draft class due to his age and experience; we'll see if that holds up. Of course, the team rides and dies with Ayton at this point. If he's a superstar, they'll be able to vault themselves into the playoff pictures sooner than later. Best-Case Scenario: Ayton averages 20 and 11, looks like a competent rim protector and wins Rookie of the Year. Booker cuts down on his turnovers, and the Suns find a competent backcourt mate to get the ball out of his hands. The Suns lead the league in three-point percentage, win 35 games and surprise enough people to make them the dark horse team heading into the summer. Robert Sarver hires James Jones full-time as his GM and the Suns land a high lottery pick in the draft. Worst-Case Scenario: Igor Kokoskov's first year at the helm is a disaster. Ayton and Booker are turnover machines despite scoring lots of points. Jackson doesn't improve and Bridges is a dud. None of the point guards look competent, and the front office and ownership still cannot get on the same page. Phoenix finishes neck-and-neck with Sacramento for the worst record in the West. Sacramento Kings
Record Projection: 20-62, 5th in Division and last in the NBA Playoff Finish: They'll watch it on their couches Positional Depth Chart G - De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Yogi Ferrell, Frank Mason W - Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justin Jackson, Ben McLemore, Iman Shumpert F - Marvin Bagley III, Nemanja Bjelicia, Zach Randolph P - Willie Cauley-Stein, Harry Giles, Skal Labissiere, Kosta Koufos There's a lot of youth and a lot of young size on this court. It's a shame that they'll have a tough time with the spacing because De'Aaron Fox is one of the most exciting young players nobody gets to talk about. And Buddy Hield is quietly really solid, too. Unfortunately they'll stink on defense, despite a couple fascinatingly switchy posts like Cauley-Stein and Giles. Bagley can get by on sheer athleticism, but they're doing him no services with this system. An injury to Bogdanovic delays the start to his season. Unfortunately it's just a poor collection of talent right now; some individuals have upside, but the group really does not. One Bold Prediction: Harry Giles emerges as their best prospect by the end of the season. I'm high on Fox at the point and think Bagley will be solid, but Giles could be their most exciting guy. He can guard multiple spots, he shoots it well and can handle it, and he feels the game in ways most players his size cannot. In a season without a ton of bright spots, Giles turns into a glaring one. Three things to Watch: 1. Bagley's comfort guarding wings - The experiment seems to be in full effect in SacTown: see what Bagley can do playing at the 3. If the organization plans on keeping their young bigs together, they'll have to try it on for size. Offensively it's blah and depends on the creativity of their sets to leverage their lack of shooting outside of Hield. The real test for Bagley is on defense. I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong if he has a good year and looks comfortable guarding smaller wings for long stretches. 2. Their cap space - Sacramento can play the role of facilitator since they enter the season with $5 million in cap space. They're the only team in the league with that room, and will milk that for all they've got. Expect the Kings to use it some time closer to the season - even if it means waiving a guy like Kosta Koufos or Zach Randolph just to absorb a player with more upside. 3. Fox the playmaker - I think De'Aaron Fox will have a good year as a scorer and defender, but the true test of his mettle will be seen with how he gets others involved. Granted the group around him is underwhelming, but if he gets his team a few open buckets a night it will be a positive step in his development. Best-Case Scenario: The Kings look like they have a future star in Harry Giles. He and Bagley are an overwhelming tandem up front. The Kings deal Willie Cauley-Stein to a team that wants him long-term and get a solid asset in return. Fox takes the next step in their development and they win 24 games. Vlade gets fired and they bring in Sam Hinkie. Worst-Case Scenario: Dave Joerger doesn't make it to Thanksgiving. Vlade botches a few trade calls. The Kings don't use their cap space at all. Bagley struggles in their three-big lineups and they abort those quickly, only to insert Ben McLemore back in for another go 'round. Sacramento finishes shy of 20 wins and with the worst record in the league. No draft pick for the Kings leaves them in misery.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Adam SpinellaHead Boys Basketball Coach, Boys' Latin School (MD). Archives
September 2021
Categories |