2018-19 Season Preview: Southeast Division

​The NBA season is here, and we at the Box and One are doing a quick NBA preview on each team in the league. The preview will include the following:

-A record projection and postseason finish
-Review of the depth chart
-One bold prediction
-Three things to watch
-Best-case and worst-case scenario

Without any further fluff or pomp, here's a quick preview on each team division by division, starting here in the Southeast Division. Perhaps the worst division in the NBA, both the Heat and Wizards will be jockeying for position at the top. Will they be able to get a third team into the playoffs, and how are rebuilds going for their teams?

Miami Heat
Record Projection: 45-37, 1st in Division and 5th in Eastern Conference
Playoff Finish: Come up short in a fun seven-game series with the Bucks

Positional Depth Chart
G - Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, Rodney McGruder
W - Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, Wayne Ellington
F - James Johnson, Derrick Jones Jr.
P - Hassan Whiteside, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, Udonis Haslem

Miami has the most intriguing three-man rotation at the 5-spot. Whiteside is the big-money guy, but an Olynyk-Adebayo pairing side-by-side or in relief of each other is super fascinating. Richardson and Winslow play extremely hard, which makes up for defensive deficiencies elsewhere. Miami is fairly deep – deeper than most in the East. They're running out of time on Dragic as their alpha creator, though. Unless they can get a star scorer in the next year this might be their last shot at pushing to the top of the East.

One Bold Prediction: Bam Adebayo starts every game after the All-Star Break.

Whether it's because Whiteside gets traded, hurt, benched or simply quits on the team, Bam is going to step in and become the anchor before this season is done. He's a terror in the open floor, rebounds and runs extremely well and has a decent amount of upside as a scorer. Miami was abysmal in the postseason with Whiteside on the floor; it's only a matter of time before Bam finds himself in this spot.

Three things to Watch:
1. The trade market - It's no secret the organization has tried to acquire Jimmy Butler. He's high on their wishlist, and they might be close to getting something done near midseason. But Miami cannot hitch all their hopes on that trailer. Pat Riley always has something up his sleeve, and they can trade this year's draft pick, so if they're close, he may pull the trigger.

2. Whiteside's relationship with the organization - Things were less than peachy after the season ended and coach Spoelstra didn't play Whiteside the amount a star ought to. Perhaps that's because he isn't a star, but don't tell him that. Either way, if he doesn't have the start to the year he hopes, Whiteside might push for a trade and an exit from Miami. Then they'll lose all their leverage in moving on a bloated contract in a non-existent market. Hopefully the Heat can make it work and salvage a declining relationship.

3. Winslow's ascent - The recent extension for Winslow shows that the organization does truly believe in him. He's had an up-and-down career filled with inconsistency as a scorer. This may be the year with a big step forward for him. Follow him closely; he may be the missing piece for the team.

Best-Case Scenario: Miami gets Butler, and a month before the deadline. They don't give up a ton, either. Whiteside and the team mend fences. Butler carries the team to the playoffs and a 4-seed in the East. They advance out of the first-round and Butler promises to re-sign in free agency.

Worst-Case Scenario: No trades are made. Dragic looks old. The Wade farewell tour doesn't go as planned and he asks for a buyout in March. Wayne Ellington doesn't capture the same magic he had last year, Winslow cannot shoot and the team falls below league-average from deep. Whiteside demands a trade, the organization can't find one of value, and they're stuck with him sitting on the bench. The squeak into the playoffs as the eight-seed and get swept.

Washington Wizards
Record Projection: 42-40, 2nd in Division and 7th in the East
Playoff Finish: Broomed by Toronto

Positional Depth Chart
G - John Wall, Bradley Beal, Austin Rivers, Tomas Satoransky
W - Kelly Oubre Jr., Troy Brown Jr.
F - Otto Porter Jr., Markieff Morris, Jeff Green
P - Dwight Howard, Ian Mahinmi, Jason Smith, Thomas Bryant

Washington still has two roster spots open and might be able to find some useful depth on the market. For what it's worth, this is one of the five-most talented teams in the East. They have good balance of talent, save their frontcourt depth. Mahinmi, Smith and Bryant have to prove worth something, especially if Howard gets hurt. I'm praying for a Wall-Beal-Oubre-Porter-Markieff lineup to close some games. Dwight really isn't that bad on the court if he can be content getting fed by Wall. Don't sleep on the impact Austin Rivers will have on this team.

One Bold Prediction: Bradley Beal, not John Wall, makes the All-Star team

I'm of the frame of mind that Beal is better than Wall, and this is the year the rest of the league catches on. Normally All-Star shenanigans don't matter to me, but this is exactly the type of honor that would cause a rift between the two players. Fracture their relationship, add Dwight's personality into the mix, and there's a chance things fracture quite easily in our nation's capital. 

Three things to Watch:
1. Dwight - All eyes are going to be on the newcomer in Howard, who is probably one of the four or five most polarizing players in the league. He's great in the pick-and-roll, still rebounds like a machine and has some value as a rim protector. However, he clanks far too many post-ups, frets when he doesn't get them and seldom runs the floor. Playing with John Wall could force him to embrace his weak areas, or his personality could get in the way of the Wizards taking a step forward.

2. Rivers-Wall-Beal - I'd love to see this three-man combination at some point. These are their three most-talented offensive threats, and getting them on the floor together will bring excitement. I already mentioned my dream closing lineup, and Rivers doesn't make it in, but damn I'd love to watch these three tear a team up for a three or four-minute stretch early in the first quarter.

3. Their mouths - Washington has always been the team that talks a bigger game than they can back up. Adding a future Hall of Famer like Howard is exactly the move that gets them jawing once again, but it's still not certain to improve their results. Don't be surprised if they falter.

Best-Case Scenario: 48 wins and the four-seed in the East. Howard works out well for them, stays healthy and embraces his role. Ian Mahinmi really can hit threes, Kelly Oubre is one of the most exciting bench players and Austin Rivers is the much-needed punch off the bench. Scott Brooks gets praised for his job in keeping the group together. Both Wall and Beal make the All-Star team and Troy Brown makes a positive impact in the postseason. They have a solid showing against the top seed in the East before bowing out in six.

Worst-Case Scenario: Things implode quickly when Dwight starts chucking threes. They have no depth so they have to keep playing him, and then the wheels come off around Christmas. Wall starts arguing and rumblings surface about him asking for a trade. Meanwhile Austin Rivers is killing it and some folks think they'll be better without Wall, a silly notion. They make the playoffs on talent alone, but a 41-win team crumbles and is swept out the door.

Charlotte Hornets
Record Projection: 35-47, 3rd in Division and 9th in the East
Playoff Finish: Five games out of the 8th slot

Positional Depth Chart
G - Kemba Walker, Malik Monk, Tony Parker
W - Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lamb, Miles Bridges, Devonte Graham, Dwayne Bacon
F - Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
P - Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, Willy Hernangomez, Bismack Biyombo

Not a poor talent-level, and this is a group that's comfortable with each other. Borrego has them playing fast as a priority and is correcting their three-point shot selection. Even the bigs like Zeller and Hernangomez are getting in on the action. Bridges gives them a good piece of depth on the wings and allows them to play ten deep. The key here is Malik Monk's emergence and the health of their wings and forwards.

One Bold Prediction: Charlotte leads the league in three-point percentage

The big men will hit them at a surprisingly high clip, with Zeller and Hernangomez both above 33 percent. Combine that with their normal marksmen and the Hornets are a lethal shooting team. Walker captains that attack, more minutes from Monk get them higher volume as well, and their offense is saved by its simplicity.

Three things to Watch:
1. Bridges progression - The rookie from Michigan State has bundles of upside, though he was far from my favorite player in the draft. If he can shoot the ball well, he'll find some minutes. Athletically he's already a stud and he's got an intriguing skill set for his size. That could cause positive mismatches for the club.

2. Kemba's contract - Kemba is in a contract year, and the Hornets are no lock for the playoffs. It's doubtful that the organization trades him away unless they get a killer loot, but they're already over $102 million on the books next season. Re-signing Kemba isn't without its consequences, though the roster is too good for them to completely dismantle. It's likely he stays and they hang up on some really intriguing calls.

3. The frontcourt rotation - Between Zeller, Hernangomez and Kaminsky, there a few guys that are fairly reliable in who they are and what they give. The more Zeller and Hernangomez continue to shoot it (and make it) the less of a role Kaminsky has. On the flip side, if they struggle, Kaminsky becomes the most important piece of the rotation. Watch for how Borrego manages them throughout the year and builds a defense around them.

Best-Case Scenario: 44 wins and the seven-seed. Things go well for the roster under Borrego. They shoot really well, get a lot out of Malik Monk and are aided by Tony Parker as their bench unit quarterback. Zeller gets some recognition as an above-average starter, everyone stays healthy and they win a game or two in the playoffs.

Worst-Case Scenario: They struggle out of the gate and never regain their footing. The Hornets shoot a high volume but low percentage from deep, Jeremy Lamb takes a step back and they get nothing out of Malik Monk once again. Bridges is in and out of the rotation, and they struggle to guard the rim. Charlotte barely squeaks to 30 wins and some difficult conversations lie ahead.

Orlando Magic
Record Projection: 23-59, 4th in Division and 13th in the East
Playoff Finish: None

Positional Depth Chart
G - Jerian Grant, DJ Augustin, Wesley Iwundu, Isaiah Briscoe
W - Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Terrence Ross, Melvin Frazier
F - Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Jarell Martin
P - Nikola Vucevic, Mohammed Bamba, Timofey Mozgov

Well, Orlando's three best prospects are Bamba, Gordon and Isaac. In order to play all three together, it'll take some great imagination from Steve Clifford or supreme shooting from the other guards. They have the worst guard rotation in the league, and it isn't really close. Vucevic and Ross are on expiring deals; expect the Magic to beat those guys to death trying to suck trade value out of their situations. Aaron Gordon still has some untapped upside, and Bamba has superstar upside. Not much to be excited about beyond that.

One Bold Prediction: Aaron Gordon leads the team in assists.

Without a perimeter playmaker worth putting hope behind, now is the time to go all-in on a guy like Gordon as being the focal point of their offense. It might not lead to high-caliber output, but I expect Gordon to be someone they run plenty of ball screens for and let loose as a point forward. Efficiency is out the window here; he'll have the volume to gain this honor.

Three things to Watch:
1. Mo Bamba - This guy has the hopes of the franchise on his shoulders. He has the upside of a shot blocking three-point shooter at his size like we've never seen before. Orlando isn't flanking him with the right tools to succeed, but he's got a ton to like about his package.

2. Grant, Augustin and Iwundu - If this is their "point guard" rotation, I have no idea who to put where in terms of order. Grant might have the most offensive upside, Iwundu the most defensively, and Augustin is currently the most polished and best shooter. If one emerges as a solid starting option and provides a steady 28 minutes per game, the Magic have something to work with.

3. Trade markets for Ross and Vucevic - Orlando has two expiring deals and could press hard to get something out of either. Not many teams are looking for big men, so it might not be the case that Vucevic gets a lot of valuable looks. Ross on the other hand could boost his value with a good start to the year. Orlando needs picks to add to their stockpile.

Best-Case Scenario: Perhaps wins is the wrong way to think about a best-case for the Magic. Their best case comes from getting the top pick in next year's draft and seeing their youngsters pan out. Isaac, Gordon and Bamba all look like studs, their length overwhelms defensively and they coexist well on the floor. Bamba gets Rookie of the Year consideration, too. Their veterans are solid, and Jerian Grant plays well as their starter.

Worst-Case Scenario: The pieces don't fit. Offense is last in the league and a disaster without a good lead guard. They don't shoot well enough. Gordon takes no steps forward as a leader, Isaac still only shows flashes and Bamba gets muscled around. Vucevic and Ross net them nothing at the deadline, and an empty 20-win campaign only sees the Magic grab the 5th overall pick.

Atlanta Hawks
Record Projection: 21-61, 5th in Division and last in the Eastern Conference
Playoff Finish: None

Positional Depth Chart
G - Trae Young, Jeremy Lin, Tyler Dorsey, Daniel Hamilton
W - Taurean Prince, Kent Bazemore, Justin Anderson, DeAndre Bembry, Kevin Huerter, Vince Carter
F - John Collins
P - Dewayne Dedmon, Alex Len, Omari Spellman, Miles Plumlee

Young and Collins are intriguing building blocks. Collins at the 5 is interesting, but doesn't appear to be their desired direction. Taurean Prince is better than most people think. I love Spellman long-term, but don't expect a lot this season. Where Atlanta still needs help is finding young wings they like. Shopping Bazemore will be a priority throughout the season, but this entire roster is about figuring out what the young guys give.

One Bold Prediction: Trae Young leads the league in three-point attempts

Because of their lack of success as a team, Young will have a good amount of time on the floor and to play through his mistakes. He'll continue to default to what he does best and who he is: a deep-range three point shooter. The Hawks are filled with young players that struggle to create their own as well. Combine that and Young will get them up early and often.

Three things to Watch:
1. Young and Collins - We're watching what everyone else is watching here. Can these two youngsters be the future for this franchise? They made a calculated move by giving up the chance for Luka Doncic in order to grab Young. Hopefully it pays off.

2. Lloyd Pierce teaching defense - With a young team filled with offense-first guys, first-year coach Lloyd Pierce has his work cut out for him. If he can bring the same passion and defensive intensity he brought to the Process Sixers, the Hawks will shorten their rebuild considerably. It starts with devising a scheme that keeps his heir apparent out of harm's way.

3. The rest of the youngsters - So many guys are worth monitoring here. Is DeAndre' Bembry worth anything? Can Daniel Hamilton find a role in the league? Will Dorsey ever pass it? Can Alex Len have a comeback campaign? How long will it take Spellman to turn into a threat? Lots of questions to be had. At the very least Atlanta will look for definitive answers by the end of the year.

Best-Case Scenario: 25 wins and a Rookie of the Year for Young. Huerter and Spellman look good as well, and the Hawks get a solid loot for Bazemore. Fans are encouraged by progress at the beginning of their gutting project.

Worst-Case Scenario: Young flames out and cannot guard anyone. His shooting isn't as advertised over the course of a long season. John Collins sees his production taper of now that he's a primary threat in the offense. Bazemore stays on the roster, Linsanity doesn't sell any tickets and none of their posts get them much in the way of trade value or on-court production. Sixteen wins and the worst record in the league are bad, but questions about the validity of their plan are worse.