2018-19 Season Preview: Southwest Division

The NBA season is here, and we at the Box and One are doing a quick NBA preview on each team in the league. The preview will include the following:

-A record projection and postseason finish
-Review of the depth chart
-One bold prediction
-Three things to watch
-Best-case and worst-case scenario

Without any further fluff or pomp, here's a quick preview on each team division by division, starting here in the Southwest. The Spurs dynasty is in question, Houston is still reaching to topple Golden State, and the superstar of Anthony Davis is ready to carry the Pelicans after losing Boogie Cousins.

Houston Rockets
Record Projection: 58-24, 1st in Division and 2nd in the West
Playoff Finish: Lose in 7 games of heartbreak to Utah in the Western Conference Semis

Positional Depth Chart
G - James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Brandon Knight
W - Gerald Green, James Ennis, Michael Carter-Williams
F -PJ Tucker, Carmelo Anthony, Marquese Chriss, Isaiah Hartenstein
P - Clint Capela, Nene, Zhou Qi

GM Daryl Morey is certainly going to tinker with this roster and get some more out of their assets. As of now, it's a bit of a step back from last year, where guys like Mbah a Moute and Ariza were the perfect role players and fits. I hope nobody underrates PJ Tucker much longer – he's a big-time defender in this league. The fit with Melo is curious, but it's a solid talent grab. Ennis needs to step up, and if they can find a way to defensively make it work with three of their four guards on the floor for long stretches, they'll hover around 60 wins once again. 

One Bold Prediction: Houston doesn't make it to the Western Conference Finals

As crazy as it sounds, I think they got worse over the summer and there are a few other teams that got better. If Tucker doesn't have a high-scoring wing to guard, the Rockets have too many holes defensively. The abrupt retirement of de facto defensive coordinator Jeff Bzdelik this preseason will hurt in many ways. These guys logged a ton of minutes last year and gave their best shot, still coming up short. 

Three things to Watch:
1. Carmelo's defense and role adjustment - We saw the same thing last year in Oklahoma City lead to a failed experiment. Can Anthony adjust to a bench role, a complimentary or spot-up role on offense and give some grit on defense? I think defensively he thrives against post-bound 4 men, the same place they like to hide James Harden at times. The fit is not ideal, so the onus is on Carmelo to embrace his changes and adapt.

2. James Ennis - Ennis has to find a way to replace the offensive and defensive value a guy like Trevor Ariza leaves behind – especially because Carmelo won't. I expect a big season from Ennis, but other league sources are down on him and don't expect the same type of production. He's a make-or-break piece for Houston.

3. Morey's activity - It's a strange year on the market. With free agency budgets rising for next year, there are a limited amount of buyers out there. That means a team like Houston can get a player on the cheap. Will they make a big splash and try to acquire Jimmy Butler? What other complimentary pieces are available on the market? Morey certainly won't stand pat with this roster.

Best-Case Scenario: 65 wins, the one-seed, and this time Chris Paul doesn't go down in the Western Conference Finals. This Rockets team does have NBA Championship upside.

Worst-Case Scenario: The defense struggles, Paul and Harden's personalities start to clash, and Melo doesn't fit. Morey can't fix the issues with a quick trade, and the Rockets sputter to 53 wins in a crowded Western Conference. They win their first-round series on talent alone and bow out after uninspired iso ball in clutch time dooms them in the second round.

San Antonio Spurs
Record Projection: 44-38, 2nd in Division and 8th in the West
Playoff Finish: Well, they're 8th in the West... so first-round and out

Positional Depth Chart
G - Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes
W - DeMar DeRozan, Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker, Quincy Pondexter
F - LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Davis Bertans, Dante Cunningham
P - Pau Gasol, Jakob Poeltl, Chimezie Metu

The injury bug struck San Antonio again, as their two most important guards and last three first-round picks will all miss time at the beginning of the year. The veterans up front of Aldridge and Gasol can only carry so much. DeRozan, Gay and Aldridge are the least Spursian players in the league, yet here they are in Pop's system. The depth in San Antonio is strong, and guys like Mills and Belinelli are more than capable of performing patch work until the injuries to White and Walker subside. Losing Murray for the season really hurts, though. I am also super high on Poeltl; he has an important role to play this year.

One Bold Prediction: San Antonio has a top-three defense this year

Like clockwork, Gregg Popovich churns out elite defensive groups. Year after year we've talked about their aging personnel and how that will finally slow their defensive output. It never happens. Now we've got some offense-first players and new faces. Still, no reason to doubt their system. Popovich and the Spurs have earned the benefit of the doubt. A stout defense and great work on that end of the court is their ticket to the postseason. Pop knows this and will get them playing at an elite level.

Three things to Watch:
1. Where they slot Gay - Rudy is the most versatile piece they have on the active roster. If he starts at the 3, they're likely too clunky and don't shoot well enough to be a high-caliber offensive group, but it does allow their talent to balance itself nicely in the rotation. If Gay starts at the 4 and Aldridge is at the 5, their defense is under the microscope and Poeltl likely gets squeezed. If Gay comes off the bench as a super-sub and a switchy wing, they'll need Derrick White to step up and be ready for a big role this season. Gay is the intriguing piece to watch.

2. Youngsters White and Walker - Without Dejounte in the fold, one of these two guys needs to come up and have a massive role in San Antonio. White might be that guy; he can score in a variety of ways, is big for his position and has some polish on him already. One or both of these guys are necessary to a postseason push.

3. How DeRozan adjusts - If DeRozan cannot wrap his head around more ball movement and getting out of the mid-range frequently, the offense might sputter. He also needs to play more inspired defense and rise to the occasion of guarding the best player on the other team routinely. If he does that, the Spurs have a chance.

Best-Case Scenario: 50 wins once again because Popovich is Popovich and we should never doubt the Spurs. They get a top-four seed and somehow make it to the conference semifinals. 

Worst-Case Scenario: The run of playoff appearances ends and things don't quite work out. Their perimeter defense is porous and they struggle to find consistency at the 5. Gasol looks old, their three-point shooting isn't effective enough and Walker and White struggle to make a positive impact. The defense dips to league average and the Spurs don't score enough to win 45 games.

New Orleans Pelicans
Record Projection: 43-39, 3rd in Division and 9th in the West
Playoff Finish: One game behind the Spurs for the final spot

Positional Depth Chart
G - Jrue Holiday, Elfrid Payton, E'Twaun Moore, Ian Clark, Frank Jackson
W - Solomon Hill, Darius Miller, Wesley Johnson, Troy Williams
F - Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Kenrich Williams
P - Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Jahlil Okafor

New Orleans finished the regular season 21-13 after the DeMarcus Cousins injury, swept the Blazers in the first round and then met their demise against the Warriors. Are they really better without Cousins? Davis is a natural 5, and the Mirotic pairing in the frontcourt is great. They're weak on the wings, and other than Holiday don't have a ton of reliable backcourt depth. Payton isn't a cheap version of Rondo, no matter how much they want him to be. Outside of Mirotic, is there enough shooting here to stamp a high-caliber offense under Gentry? They'll undoubtedly play fast, but that can't be a saving grace.

One Bold Prediction: Julius Randle wins 6th Man of the Year

The Randle signing is a great one for the Pelicans. The three-man rotation of Randle, Davis and Mirotic is versatile, well-rounded and simply fits. I expect Randle to come off the bench and log around 25-28 minutes a night, and he'll be impactful in those minutes. He's tailor-made to be a beast at the 5 against bench units, and he and Davis will be solid side-by-side. He puts up a double-double and has solid assist numbers off the bench and runs away with the award.

Three things to Watch:
1. MVP Monster Davis - Is that type of player necessary for the Pelicans to make the playoffs and be really good? Is that the guy we'll get every night over the course of an 82-game season. Remember, these were his numbers without Cousins last year: 30.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.0 steals and a ludicrous 3.2 blocks. How sustainable is that over the long-term? If it is, Davis should be MVP and the Pelicans a playoff team comfortably.

2. The wing rotation - Who emerges amongst their wings as a viable starter is crucial. The Pelicans of the last couple years remind me of the Clippers of the early part of the decade. Each year they got a new 3-man to plug in at the role, but it was always the weak spot. As they rotate around their superstar and elite backcourt mate Jrue Holiday, they need someone that can consistently make shots, guard on the other end and perhaps do a little something off the dribble.

3. Their summer fliers - Taking chances on guys like Elfrid Payton and Jahlil Okafor this summer are low-risk, high-reward plays. If they don't work out, they'll still have to address their depth situations pretty quickly. Luckily there are plenty of non-guaranteed contracts on the books, giving New Orleans a chance to scour the market come February.

Best-Case Scenario: 46 wins, an MVP for Davis and some DPOY votes for Holiday. The Pelicans make the playoffs and once again pull of a first-round upset. Their pace makes their offense great, and Davis is a beast of a rim protector to anchor top-ten offense and defense in New Orleans. 

Worst-Case Scenario: One injury in their three-man big rotation breaks up the fun. Payton and Okafor are duds, there's not enough shooting to go around and the Pelicans look decidedly mediocre. Questions about Alvin Gentry pop up even though he's not the problem, and Dell Demps looks for a quick fix that sicks the franchise in the mud for the summer.

Dallas Mavericks
Record Projection: 32-50, 4th in Division and 12th int he West
Playoff Finish: Not this year

Positional Depth Chart
G - Dennis Smith Jr., JJ Barea, Jalen Brunson, Devin Harris
W - Luka Doncic, Wesley Matthews, Ryan Broekhoff
F - Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber
P - DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Powell, Salah Mejri, Ray Spalding

An intriguing six-man top of the rotation, paired with the eternally effective Barea-Dirk bench pick-and-roll combo, should be solid for Dallas this year. Doncic is the exciting young piece to build around; I'm really excited to see him and DSJ together under Carlisle. Matthews could get them a nice long-term piece via trade. I like guys like Brunson, Harris and Powell individually, but together they're not quite polished enough to give Dallas a high-end bench.

One Bold Prediction: Dennis Smith Jr. wins Most Improved Player

Eased by the presence of Doncic next to him, DSJ busts out as a Derrick Rose-like youngster. I mean, check out their rookie per 36 minute stats side-by-side:

Smith: 18.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.4 turnovers, 39.5% shooting, 31% 3FG
Rose: 16.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.4 turnovers, 47.5% shooting, 22.2% 3FG

Smith keeps the Mavs as a high-end offense and they surprise people with their pace and effectiveness.

Three things to Watch:
1. Jordan's defense - Quietly, Jordan has started to age and look a little worse over the last couple of seasons. Is he going to raise the caliber of the Mavericks defense? If he does, they could be a dark horse to jump closer into playoff contention as they seek to give Dirk one last gasp.

2. Who does Doncic guard? - A lot is being made about the defensive aptitude here, but to me his versatility is a plus. Will the Mavs use him as a small-ball 4 and have him and Barnes a switchy tandem? 

3. Trading Wes Matthews - The Mavs will have their sniping wing on the block; the question isn't if, it's when. What type of return the team gets – and wants – for him will be the key to taking care of the best package they can get in return.

Best-Case Scenario: 40 wins and the 9 seed. They narrowly miss the playoffs. Jordan and Doncic both look great, Smith takes a big stride forward, and the Mavericks add Evan Fournier from Orlando as another shooter to space the floor.

Worst-Case Scenario: Dallas can't guard anyone. Smith looks the same, and they flame out early. 28 wins and another disappointing campaign as Dirk retires without much fanfare or getting another chance to make a playoff run.

Memphis Grizzlies
Record Projection: 32-50, 4th in Division and 12th int he West
Playoff Finish: Nope

Positional Depth Chart
G - Michael Conley, Shelvin Mack, Jevon Carter, Andrew Harrison
W - Garrett Temple, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, MarShon Brooks, Wayne Selden
F - Chandler Parsons, JaMychal Green, Omri Casspi
P - Marc Gasol, Jaren Jackson Jr., Ivan Rabb

Everything revolves around their health. Kyle Anderson and Garrett Temple were quietly nice pickups and ease the defensive burdens on their overpaid trio. JaMychal Green in a contract year has high expectations, plus I like the gritty one-two punch of guards off the bench in Mack and Carter. Jaren Jackson's upside has been noted, but if Memphis is going to make the playoff push they want, they'll need him along with a healthy core.

One Bold Prediction: JaMychal Green fetches them a solid get at the deadline

Likely not good enough to bring in a first-round pick, the super-tall Grizzlies see the expiring Green as expendable and flip him for a faster, more pace-oriented wing. That allows Parsons to slide to the 4, and a little more speed pushes everyone up a position, which helps. A guy like Malik Beasley, Tony Snell or Langston Galloway could be a nice role piece for the Grizz.

Three things to Watch:
1. How they play against fast-paced teams - This is a group with a decent amount of mileage on it, two stars that play better in the half-court and a question-mark in Chandler Parsons. Teams that push tempo might have a real advantage on the Grizzlies this season, so it will be fascinating to watch what methods coach JB Bickerstaff uses to help his team.

2. Conley & Gasol being the same ole stars - If these two return to the form they had two seasons ago, the Grizzlies could be pretty good. Last year was their first of the decade without a playoff berth, so if they have hopes of gaining ground, it comes on the shoulders of these two.

3. Jaren Jackson Jr. - He's a big-time athlete and the high ceiling type player Memphis needed to get. That said, can he help them win now? Is he ready to log minutes at the 5? How does he fare next to Gasol for long stretches? There's lots of questions, and Jackson is one of the most fascinating rookies on the docket this year.

Best-Case Scenario: 45 wins and sneaking into the playoffs. Everyone looks great, including Parsons. Temple is the unsung hero in the league, and both rookies Jackson and Carter play effectively. They bow out in the first-round after not being able to keep up against Golden State or Houston.

Worst-Case Scenario: More injuries derail their hopes for a playoff bid. Father Time crushes them as their old roster cannot gain traction. They've missed their window to rebuild, so they stare down the barrel of an expensive roster, unattractive trade chips and Jackson being their only stud for a few seasons. Gasol gets unhappy with his coach again, and the Grizzlies slog through the season with 28 wins.